Master Chen's Hot Topic Discussion:
Yesterday, a friend insisted that I discuss the OM matter. To be honest, I really don't want to mention any Altcoins this year. This thing has crashed from $6 to $0.5, and having been in the BTC circle for so many years, I've seen big waves and winds.
Actually, from last year to this year, many Altcoin projects have been quite bad, but the market makers of such Altcoin projects are even worse. If you're an older investor, you should have seen many project collapses.
I'm a cautious person. I absolutely won't touch projects without fundamental or technical support. If you get trapped, just accept it. That's how the BTC circle works - accept the bet's outcome.
Back to the topic, currently, US stocks and BTC are slightly rising. Trump is adjusting tariffs, which seems like a smokescreen, and the actual tariffs might not be that harsh.
Fed's Waller also spoke up, saying if US average tariffs reach 25%, inflation might surge short-term, but the economy would likely recession.
If a recession occurs, he supports quickly cutting rates significantly. If tariffs are around 10%, inflation would persist, but economic impact would be minimal, so the Fed must be cautious about rate cuts. If inflation drops to 2%, rate cuts might happen in the second half of the year.
Essentially, Waller believes if tariffs truly reach 25%, the US economy would likely collapse, and rate cuts would just be a temporary measure.
Regarding BTC, chaos continues in the US. What we can do is understand the essence and make money fundamentally. Currently, BTC hasn't seen significant volume drops, hovering above $80,000 for three to four days, which isn't bad for us.
If BTC truly drops, we'd rather chase profits. Yesterday, my article's short position at 85.3k to 86.7k earned nearly 2,000 points. From on-chain data and institutional public costs, institutions are roughly between $50k to $70k, so they can't pull prices lower at this level, making further drops beneficial to them.
Looking at most retail investors who are waiting and watching, with no new money entering. The US hasn't resolved its own issues, so the conclusion is BTC could drop anytime, and only a significant drop can adjust market sentiment. Currently, BTC is in the 85k range, and from a medium-term perspective, downside opportunities are definitely larger than upside.
Master Chen's Trend Analysis:
Resistance Levels Reference:
First Resistance Level: 86100
Second Resistance Level: 85500
Support Levels Reference:
First Support Level: 84300
Second Support Level: 83200
Today's Recommendation:
Although BTC experienced a brief decline yesterday, it has currently recovered and maintained an upward trend line. Technically, BTC is forming an ascending triangle convergence pattern. If it can hold the lower upward trend line, it may test the 85.5k resistance level.
Given the current market volatility, the possibility of temporarily breaking the upward trend line should be noted. Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to the first and second support levels during operations.
The first resistance level is the upper resistance of the ascending triangle convergence pattern. If the neckline is broken, further increases can be expected. It is recommended to wait for a pullback after retesting before entering.
Although market sentiment has improved, no new highs have been created, so be wary of profit-taking pressure at resistance levels. During operations, consider taking profits at resistance levels and gradually accumulate profits.
Maintaining the first support level is crucial for sustaining the current upward trend in the short term. If it breaks, the upward momentum may slow. When testing 85k, look for entry opportunities near the upward trend line or first support level.
In case of a sharp decline, pay attention to the second support level. A lower shadow might form near the second support level during a sharp decline, which could be an ultra-short-term entry opportunity.
4.15 Master Chen's Swing Trading Preset:
Long Entry Reference: Not recommended currently
Short Entry Reference: Light short position at 85500-86100 range, Target: 84300-83200
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