火星财经消息，4 月 18 日，Greeks.live 分析师 Adam 表示，本周行情温和了很多，特朗普本周放出的消息没有那么多，市场迅速冷却。目前短期 RV 仅有 30%，IV 也在本周大幅下降，跌破 40%。中长期 RV 在 50% 至 60%，IV 集中在 50% 附近。Greeks.live 预期贸易战和关税战远没有到结束的时候，市场的不确定性还将长期持续，市场的波动也将长期持续。 交割量占到总持仓的不到 1 成，PCR 近期一直维持在较高水平，体现了市场对下跌的担忧明显压过了对上涨的期待。4 月与 6 月期权持仓量都维持在 25% 附近，市场结构相对稳固，横盘可能性很大。但现在是牛彻底转熊的阵痛期，投资者情绪较为低迷，在这种牛转熊的较差行情下，黑天鹅发生的概率会显著提升，买一些深度虚值看跌会是不错的选择。

<div>火星财经消息，4 月 18 日，Greeks.live 分析师 Adam 表示，本周行情温和了很多，特朗普本周放出的消息没有那么多，市场迅速冷却。目前短期 RV 仅有 30%，IV 也在本周大幅下降，跌破 40%。中长期 RV 在 50% 至 60%，IV 集中在 50% 附近。Greeks.live 预期贸易战和关税战远没有到结束的时候，市场的不确定性还将长期持续，市场的波动也将长期持续。 交割量占到总持仓的不到 1 成，PCR 近期一直维持在较高水平，体现了市场对下跌的担忧明显压过了对上涨的期待。4 月与 6 月期权持仓量都维持在 25% 附近，市场结构相对稳固，横盘可能性很大。但现在是牛彻底转熊的阵痛期，投资者情绪较为低迷，在这种牛转熊的较差行情下，黑天鹅发生的概率会显著提升，买一些深度虚值看跌会是不错的选择。</div>

分析师：预计关税战远未结束，市场不确定性将长期持续

According to Mars Finance, on April 18, Adam, an analyst from Greeks.live, stated that this week's market has been much milder, with fewer messages from Trump, causing the market to cool down quickly. Currently, short-term RV is only 30%, and IV has significantly dropped below 40% this week. Medium to long-term RV is between 50% and 60%, with IV concentrated around 50%. Greeks.live expects that the trade war and tariff war are far from over, and market uncertainty will continue for an extended period, along with market volatility. Delivery volume accounts for less than 10% of total positions, and PCR has been maintained at a high level recently, reflecting that market concerns about a downturn significantly outweigh expectations of an uptrend. Option positions for April and June are maintained around 25%, with a relatively stable market structure and a high probability of sideways movement. However, this is a painful period of transitioning from bull to bear market, with investor sentiment being low. In this unfavorable market conditions of bull-to-bear transition, the probability of black swan events will significantly increase, making it a good choice to buy some deep out-of-the-money put options.

<div>Mars Finance News, on April 18, Adam, an analyst from Greeks.live, stated that this week's market has been much milder, with fewer messages from Trump, causing the market to cool down quickly. Currently, short-term RV is only 30%, and IV has significantly dropped below 40% this week. Medium to long-term RV is between 50% and 60%, with IV concentrated around 50%. Greeks.live expects that the trade war and tariff war are far from over, and market uncertainty will continue for an extended period, along with market volatility. Delivery volume accounts for less than 10% of total positions, and PCR has been maintained at a high level recently, reflecting that market concerns about a downturn significantly outweigh expectations of an uptrend. Option positions for April and June are maintained around 25%, with a relatively stable market structure and a high probability of sideways movement. However, this is a painful period of a complete bull-to-bear transition, with investor sentiment being low. In this unfavorable bull-to-bear market, the probability of black swan events significantly increases, making it a good choice to buy some deep out-of-the-money put options.</div>

Analysts: The tariff war is far from over and market uncertainty will continue for a long time

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