Master Chen's Hot Topic Discussion:
Continuing from yesterday, Master Chen believes that Powell is quite objective and responsible, but the market always wants him to be a savior. Why should he manage so much? He just focuses on the economy and inflation, and he's doing quite well.
We can only say that Trump and Powell are both not wrong, just standing in different positions. Who knows? Maybe they're hiding in a villa drinking red wine and chatting.
Trump slapped the table and said: "Powell, I'll be the bad guy!" Powell smiled and replied: "Trump, how can I let you bear it alone?" We retail investors are too far from the source of information, foolishly arguing about who is right or wrong, and they might even be laughing at us.
Back to BTC, it has been oscillating in the 83-87K range for almost five weeks. This round of decline finally allows everyone to catch their breath and calmly think about the next move. Now the oscillation is almost at its peak, and the US stock market is closed tonight, with both long and short sides being similar.
Personally, I'm still leaning towards short. Recently, it has been rising slowly for several hours, and falling down in just a few minutes, with major market movements mostly happening at night. The market needs to wear out everyone's long and short positions before deciding which direction to go.
In the medium term, I personally think 74k is the bottom. BlackRock bought over $30 million worth of BTC, adding positions for three consecutive days, and stablecoins are also starting to flow in. If it falls below 83k, the shorts are still in control. But if it truly breaks through 87k, then a unilateral rebound will come.
Additionally, the data is quite interesting. Below BTC, around 82-83k, there are 680 million long positions waiting to be settled, and above 86.5k, there are over 2 billion short positions waiting to explode. So the market will probe this range, and the longer the oscillation, the less likely it is a bad thing for the subsequent major trend.
Master Chen's Trend Analysis:
Resistance Levels Reference:
First Resistance Level: 86000
Second Resistance Level: 85100
Support Levels Reference:
First Support Level: 84500
Second Support Level: 83900
Today's Recommendation:
BTC is currently in a horizontal oscillation and has formed a triangular convergence pattern. When approaching the end of the triangle, it will choose a direction to break through. The longer the horizontal period, the larger the volatility when breaking through.
The first resistance at 85.1k is a key resistance level in the upward process. The second resistance at 86K was tested once recently but failed to break through. If tested again today, with previous selling pressure already digested, the probability of breakthrough will be higher.
To maintain a bullish trend in the short term, the first support at 84.5K must be held. If it breaks, it will fall out of the lower edge of the triangular convergence, and the lower level will become resistance.
The second support at 83.9K is the bottom support of the box, so if it falls to 83.9K, the time to test the high point will be extended. However, this is also a zone with balanced risk and reward.
Currently, the short-term upward trend line is still stable. You can set the trend line and the lower moving average as gradual support, waiting for the price to test 85.1K again.
Master Chen's Swing Trading Preparation on 4.18:
Long Entry Reference: Not recommended at the moment
Short Entry Reference: Light short position at 85500-86000 range, Target: 84500-83900
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