Altcoins Perform Poorly, Liquidity is a Key Driving Factor
Since the launch of the ETH spot ETF in the US last summer, ETH's dominance has declined by nearly 50%. If ETH is the "fuel" driving the crypto economy, the current crypto economic situation is comparable to a deep recession.
However, ETH is not the only Altcoin losing to BTC. Over the past year, many Altcoins' narratives have emerged and disappeared - from Dogecoin derivatives to virtual tokens and Trump-themed tokens. These tokens typically follow a similar pattern: experiencing a rapid, heated rise, followed by a sharp decline, forming a pyramid-like price structure with a prolonged low period.
For Altcoins to achieve significant upward movement, they need to see demand growth driven by actual application scenarios or experience a liquidity surge similar to the 2020-2021 cycle. Historically, we have only seen Altcoins achieve significant growth during periods of abundant liquidity.
Based on the tracked indicators, the likelihood of significant liquidity inflow in the crypto market is low - making a large-scale Altcoin rise in the short term improbable.
Limited Market Speculation, BTC Requires Catalyst for Increase
Recently, stablecoin minting has drastically decreased, and this micro-liquidity signal supports BTC potentially maintaining a range of $80,000 to $90,000 in the short term. However, it is unlikely to remain completely stagnant. Trading volume (including BTC ETF trading volume) remains low, indicating limited market speculation.
However, to achieve sustained growth, BTC still needs a catalyst, which could take the form of three types of liquidity:
(1) The Federal Reserve releasing dovish signals or reducing interest rates;
(2) Micro-level liquidity, such as stablecoin growth and increased futures leverage;
(3) Macro-level liquidity, such as monetary supply growth or government-driven stimulus measures.
Continued Weak US Stock Performance May Further Boost BTC Price
The US Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates unchanged in the summer to assess the inflationary impact of Trump's proposed tariffs. Although the market expects four rate cuts in 2025, Fed Chair Powell emphasized a cautious approach in evaluating these proposals' economic impacts. Investors seem distracted by their underperforming stock portfolios, while Trump's push to renegotiate trade agreements and reshape the global order significantly impacts the market.
Interestingly, this weakens the US dollar's performance. Since global monetary supply is typically measured in dollars, a weakening dollar mechanically increases monetary supply. This impact supports BTC prices. In past bear markets, BTC's survival was often questioned, mainly due to fears of regulatory crackdowns or comprehensive bans. However, this risk has now significantly decreased, partially explaining why BTC is performing much better in the current adjustment compared to previous cycles.
The $88,800 range may be a key resistance level for reversing market structure. If it fails to break through, caution is advised. Currently in a sideways state, both upward and downward movements require a catalyst to ignite the market. Those afraid of being shaken out should either stop watching or exit, and re-enter when the market becomes clearer.
BitTap Farming Tutorial, Easy for Anyone
BitTap is an exchange that looks somewhat like OKX at first glance. Upon deeper investigation, it's likely a domestic platform, but with potential farming opportunities. Since it doesn't cost money, you can try it out - who knows, you might gain something. The tutorial is extremely simple, anyone can do it - just register (everyone can surely obtain an email or phone number). If the activity is genuine, earning a few hundred to a few thousand dollars is feasible. The Official Twitter originally said it would launch on the 20th, but yesterday they postponed it to the 30th, so there are still ten days of opportunity.
Official website as follows
https://www.bittap.com/register?inviteCode=N2FhOTA0&redirect_url=/envoy
Log in to the official website and register, scroll down to claim welfare benefits
Continue scrolling, there's a place to fill in SOL address, you need to verify your identity first, try to complete everything in case of future airdrops
Next step, click on the advanced version, then create your own sub-account and invite yourself (it's better if you have a team)
Then just wait for the launch. Since the steps are so simple, I guess there might be some thresholds for rewards when launching, most likely related to trading volume, but that's a story for later. Just go for it.
