Author: Alfred, Trend Research
I. Macro and Crypto Market Gradually Improving
1. Signs of Tariff Easing
The short-term direct emotional impact and risk-averse trading brought by Trump's tariff policy are subsiding, with current market volatility decreasing. Trump publicly spoke on Tuesday (April 22) local time, acknowledging that current tariffs on imported goods from China are too high, and tax rates are expected to be significantly reduced. This marks a softening in Trump's stance on his signature tariff policy.
2. Interest Rate Easing Expectations
Currently, CME interest rate futures imply rate cuts starting in June, with a total of 3 cuts expected this year. This may inject new liquidity into the market.
3. Crypto-Friendly Policies Gradually Implemented
Since Trump took office, the crypto market has been a key industry he aims to develop, intending to create a new "US dollar hegemony" system. (1) On March 6, 2025, Trump signed an executive order officially establishing a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" and "US Digital Asset Reserve". The plan is currently being advanced, and dozens of US states are pushing forward Bitcoin state reserve bills, with Arizona expected to submit to the governor's signature after final third reading.
(2) The US is currently advancing two stablecoin bills: the GENIUS Act (Guidance and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act) and the STABLE Act (Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability Promoting Local Economy Act). Both proposals have been introduced in their respective committees and are expected to pass. The industry generally anticipates that the final bill may be passed and implemented in the second half of 2025, depending on the speed of coordination between the two houses and the president's attitude.
(3) On April 22, Paul Atkins, nominated by Trump, officially replaced Gary Gensler as SEC Chairman. Atkins is viewed as a crypto-industry-friendly regulator, expected to reduce enforcement actions against crypto companies and promote industry innovation.
4. BTC Shifts from Short to Long
Since mid-March, BTC has performed better than US stocks, demonstrating some safe-haven attributes similar to gold. Around April 8, BTC's RSI and MACD showed bottom divergence, combined with sentiment indicators reaching extreme fear levels, forming a recent bottom. Currently, both MACD fast and slow lines are above the zero axis, with market trend shifting from short to long.
II. ETH May Lead Altcoins in Trend Reversal
1. On-Chain Data: ETH has experienced a long decline of 5 months since December 2024, with profitable address numbers dropping to lower bear market levels, continuing oversold status, and currently entering a critical support-resistance exchange interval with the crypto market's recovery.
[The translation continues in the same manner for the rest of the text, maintaining the specified translations for specific terms.]
3. Technical Analysis: Multiple technical indicators for ETH have recently shown bottoming signals, suggesting the possibility of a long-short reversal. Currently, the price is approaching the upper edge of the downward channel and attempting to break through the horizontal resistance level. A breakthrough or a confirmed pullback may bring potential buying opportunities
Over the past four months, ETH has been in a long-term downward trend, with prices dropping 66% from the highest point of $4,100 to the lowest point of $1,385. Recently, the bulls have been showing strong defensive positions, with prices rebounding approximately 30% from the lowest point to around $1,800 as of April 23rd.
[The rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach, maintaining the technical language and specific cryptocurrency terminology.]
(3) Contract Analysis
As of April 23, the open interest increased by over 300% within 24 hours, totaling $48 million, with an OI/MC of approximately 65%; trading volume rose by 782%, driving the price up by 165%.
The contract CVD continues to rise, maintaining a strong position. The spot CVD has declined, with insufficient upward momentum. The funding rate is positive, higher than usual, indicating a large amount of capital building long positions. Open interest has experienced rapid growth and remains at a high level, with no significant reduction in positions. The large holder position long-short ratio is 1.4, showing bullish sentiment. The long-short number of positions ratio is 0.45, with large capital being bullish. From the perspective of active buy-sell amount (difference), there was dense buying on the morning of April 23, with relatively few sells.
IV. Summary
Against the backdrop of improved macroeconomic environment, BTC has achieved a breakthrough at a key position. This article focuses on the data of ETH, the "Altcoin King". From on-chain data, contract situation, and technical analysis, ETH is currently at a critical position of support and resistance, and may experience a favorable trend reversal if it breaks through. Additionally, in this market, special attention should be paid to Altcoins with data anomalies. Based on chip structure and contract data, the article analyzes the rise of NEIROETH and ZEREBRO. Under the trend, more increases in the Crypto market are imminent.
