Author: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise; Translated by: AIMan@Jinse Finance
Earlier this month, I delivered the closing speech on the first day of a national brokerage firm conference. This in itself is noteworthy.
The four major brokerage firms - Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and UBS - manage over $10 trillion in client assets. Overall, these platforms have not yet allowed their advisors to easily access Bitcoin ETFs. But as my invitation to deliver the keynote suggests, this is changing rapidly.
In fact, I suspect all four brokerage firms will open Bitcoin ETF business by the end of the year. This is one reason why I still expect Bitcoin ETFs to set a record for net inflows this year, despite only "just" $3.7 billion flowing in so far in 2025, compared to $35 billion in 2024.
But I'm not writing this article to discuss brokerage firms. Instead, I want to share a story about a listener.
"What Will Be Left of Bitcoin?"
The best part of the speech is at the end. You walk off the stage - hoping to hear applause - and are usually surrounded by a group of people wanting to ask questions. These questions are the most valuable.
After this event, there was a person who patiently waited while 20 to 30 people took turns asking questions. After they finished, he said:
"I heard what you said, and it makes sense. But I just can't get past this hurdle."
This is a common sentiment. People intellectually understand Bitcoin's logic and find it attractive, but something always stops them from buying.
After discussing his concerns, we found that "something": he was worried about what would happen if everyone stopped believing in Bitcoin.
"How much would it be worth if the music stops?" he asked.
The answer is, of course, zero. If no one in the world wants to hold Bitcoin, its value is zero.
I pointed out that gold and other assets are the same, but he insisted the situation was different. He might be right. Gold at least has a physical existence, while Bitcoin... has nothing.
Honestly, I've had the same thought before, and I suspect most Bitcoin supporters have too. Bitcoin's intangibility is indeed a challenge.
My Suggestion: Write It Down
As my new friend was about to leave, still seeming conflicted, I asked him a simple question:
What else would it take for you to buy BTC?
In other words, what would he need to see to believe Bitcoin would continue to exist?
For some people, the way they answer this question will make them realize they will never buy Bitcoin. If you're waiting for Bitcoin to be more accepted than gold... or for its volatility to approach zero... you will never buy Bitcoin.
But if you don't have these barriers, it's worth seriously asking: What else would it take for you to buy BTC?
● Institutional Custody? Today, listed companies like Coinbase and well-known brands like Fidelity are custodying Bitcoin, with financial giants like Bank of New York Mellon following suit.
● Institutional Trading? Today, Bitwise is trading with established firms like Jane Street and Cumberland/DRW.
● Institutional Adoption? Nine of the top ten global hedge funds hold Bitcoin, along with Emory University ($1.1 billion endowment), Texas Teachers Retirement System ($210 billion AUM), and investment giants like Ray Dalio and Stan Druckenmiller, among many other institutions.
● Large Asset Management Companies? What about BlackRock and Invesco?
● Corporate Adoption? There's Strategy, Block, Tesla, and over eighty listed companies.
● Convenient Channels? Now there are ETFs.
● Portfolio Model? BlackRock now suggests investors allocate 2% of their portfolio to Bitcoin.
● Regulatory Stability? Market structure legislation is expected to pass in Congress this year.
● Government Adoption? The US is establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Whatever it is, write it down. Because looking back a few years ago, the things we thought we needed - like the US government holding Bitcoin or the world's largest asset management companies accepting this asset - seemed far-fetched. But we've already achieved them.
My friend thought for a while, took a deep breath, and said, "I'm going to buy Bitcoin."
I think many people will come to the same conclusion this year.
