Bitcoin (BTC) enters May 2025 with new momentum, increasing over 14% in the past 30 days and trading only 6.3% lower than the important 100,000 USD mark. Behind the price volatility, Bitcoin's apparent demand has clearly shifted to positive for the first time since late February, signaling a change in on-chain behavior.
However, new capital flow—especially from US ETFs—remains low compared to 2024 levels, indicating that institutional confidence has not fully returned. According to MEXC's COO, Tracy Jin, if current conditions persist, a summer price surge to 150,000 USD is feasible, with sentiment becoming increasingly optimistic.
Bitcoin's Apparent Demand Turns Positive, But New Capital Flow Remains Lacking
Bitcoin's apparent demand has shown a clear recovery recently, increasing to 65,000 BTC in the past 30 days. This is a strong recovery from the dip on 03/27, when apparent demand—defined as the net change in 30-day holdings across all investor groups—reached a deep negative level of -311,000 BTC.
Apparent demand reflects the aggregate balance change across wallets and provides insight into whether capital is entering or leaving the Bitcoin network.
Although the current demand level remains much lower than previous peaks in 2024, an important turning point occurred on 04/24: Bitcoin's apparent demand shifted to positive and remained positive for six consecutive days after nearly two months of continuous capital outflow.
Bitcoin's Apparent Demand. Source: CryptoQuant.Despite this improvement, broader demand momentum remains weak.
The significant lack of new capital flow suggests that recent accumulation may be driven more by current investors rather than new market capital.
For Bitcoin to create a sustainable price increase, both apparent demand and demand momentum must show synchronized and consistent growth. Until that synchronization occurs, the current stability may not support a strong or prolonged price breakout.
US Spot Bitcoin ETF Capital Flow Remains Far from 2024 Levels
Bitcoin purchases from US ETFs have remained nearly unchanged since late March, fluctuating between daily net capital flow of -5,000 to +3,000 BTC.
This activity level starkly contrasts with the strong capital flow seen in late 2024, when daily purchase transactions often exceeded 8,000 BTC and contributed to Bitcoin's initial price surge to 100,000 USD.
So far in 2025, BTC ETFs have accumulated a total of 28,000 BTC, significantly lower than the over 200,000 BTC they purchased at this time last year.
This decline indicates a slowdown in institutional demand, which was previously a crucial factor in driving major price movements.
Bitcoin: Net Cumulative Inflows to US Spot ETFs by Year. Source: CryptoQuant.There are initial signs of a modest recovery, with ETF capital flow beginning to increase recently. However, the current level is still insufficient to drive a sustainable upward trend.
ETF activity is typically viewed as an indicator of institutional confidence, and a significant increase in purchase transactions could signal returning confidence in Bitcoin's medium-term direction.
Until those capital flows strongly return, the broader market may struggle to generate the necessary momentum for a prolonged price increase.
Bitcoin Approaches 100,000 USD as Growth Momentum Persists Despite Macro Pressures
Bitcoin price has increased over 14% in the past 30 days, strongly recovering after dropping below 75,000 USD in April.
This new momentum emerges as BTC shows relative resilience amid broader macroeconomic volatility and policy pressures, including Trump's tariff measures that have impacted risk assets.
Although the entire cryptocurrency market felt the impact, Bitcoin seems to be slightly decoupling, showing less sensitivity to these external shocks compared to other digital assets.
Bitcoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView.BTC is currently only 6.3% lower than the 100,000 USD mark and remains under 17% from potentially moving to 110,000 USD. According to Tracy Jin, MEXC's COO, sentiment is becoming positive again:
"Beyond immediate price action, the increase in institutional demand and supply reduction mechanism in the context of macroeconomic uncertainty indicate a structural change in Bitcoin's role in the global financial market. BTC is used to hedge against inflation and fiat-based financial models. Its liquidity, scalability, programmability, and global accessibility provide a reliable, modern alternative to traditional financial instruments for many corporations," Jin said.
According to Jin, a summer price surge up to 150,000 USD is possible. She emphasized that the 95,000 USD price zone is likely to become the starting point for a decisive breakout above 100,000 USD in the coming days.
"If global trade tensions stabilize and institutional accumulation continues, a summer price surge up to 150,000 USD is possible, potentially extending to 200,000 USD in 2026. Overall, the external landscape remains favorable for the continuation of the upward trend, especially as stock indices rose on Friday, which could support Bitcoin over the weekend."
