🇨🇳SELF-HELP IS UNDERWAY, BUT TARIFF DRAGS ARE LIKELY ON THE WAY: GOLDMAN SACHS
CHINA EQUITY (MSCI CHINA) HAS ALMOST FULLY RECOVERED ITS POST-LIBERATION DAY DRAWDOWN OF 13% IN THE PAST 1 MONTH, AND HAS RETURNED 12% YTD. DESPITE THE UNPRECEDENTED TRADE FRICTIONS WITH THE US, CHINA'S FINANCIAL ASSETS HAVE BEEN RESILIENT SO FAR, WITH THE RMB APPRECIATING AGAINST THE USD BY 1.7% IN THE PAST MONTH, AND CHINESE GOVERNMENT BONDS RE-TESTING ALL-TIME HIGHS IN RECENT DAYS. COMMONLY CITED REASONS FOR THE RESILIENCY INCLUDE:
A) THE BROAD DOLLAR WEAKNESS;
B)SIGNS OF POTENTIAL DE-ESCALATION IN US-CHINA TRADE TENSIONS;
C) ROBUST ACTIVITY GROWTH SHOWN IN HARD DATA; AND,
D) EFFECTIVE DOMESTIC POLICY EASING.
WE STAY OVERWEIGHT CHINA EQUITY IN REGIONAL CONTEXT AND RAISE OUR 2025 INDEX EPS FORECAST AS OUR US ECONOMISTS EXPECT THE EFFECTIVE US TARIFF RATE ON CHINESE IMPORTS TO FALL FROM AROUND 160% TO AROUND 60% RELATIVELY SOON. CORRESPONDINGLY, WE NUDGE UP OUR 12 M INDEX TARGET FOR MSCI CHINA AND CSI300 TO 78 AND 4,400, IMPLYING 7% AND 15% POTENTIAL RETURNS. WE’D CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON SECTOR AND THEMATIC ALPHA IN A WHAT WE VIEW AS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND FAIRLY-VALUED BETA ENVIRONMENT.
#CHINA $SHCOMP $SSEC $ASHR $HSI $KWEB $FXI $HXC $DRAG $YINN $YANG @MKTNEWS24
🇨🇳GOLDMAN SACHS: CHINA STOCKS REMAIN RESILIENT, MAINTAINS "OVERWEIGHT" RATING.
#CHINA $SHCOMP $SSEC $ASHR $HSI $KWEB $FXI $HXC $DRAG $YINN $YANG @MKTNEWS24
- CN WIRE ...
CHINA EQUITY (MSCI CHINA) HAS ALMOST FULLY RECOVERED ITS POST-LIBERATION DAY DRAWDOWN OF 13% IN THE PAST 1 MONTH, AND HAS RETURNED 12% YTD. DESPITE THE UNPRECEDENTED TRADE FRICTIONS WITH THE US, CHINA'S FINANCIAL ASSETS HAVE BEEN RESILIENT SO FAR, WITH THE RMB APPRECIATING AGAINST THE USD BY 1.7% IN THE PAST MONTH, AND CHINESE GOVERNMENT BONDS RE-TESTING ALL-TIME HIGHS IN RECENT DAYS. COMMONLY CITED REASONS FOR THE RESILIENCY INCLUDE:
A) THE BROAD DOLLAR WEAKNESS;
B)SIGNS OF POTENTIAL DE-ESCALATION IN US-CHINA TRADE TENSIONS;
C) ROBUST ACTIVITY GROWTH SHOWN IN HARD DATA; AND,
D) EFFECTIVE DOMESTIC POLICY EASING.
WE STAY OVERWEIGHT CHINA EQUITY IN REGIONAL CONTEXT AND RAISE OUR 2025 INDEX EPS FORECAST AS OUR US ECONOMISTS EXPECT THE EFFECTIVE US TARIFF RATE ON CHINESE IMPORTS TO FALL FROM AROUND 160% TO AROUND 60% RELATIVELY SOON. CORRESPONDINGLY, WE NUDGE UP OUR 12 M INDEX TARGET FOR MSCI CHINA AND CSI300 TO 78 AND 4,400, IMPLYING 7% AND 15% POTENTIAL RETURNS. WE’D CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON SECTOR AND THEMATIC ALPHA IN A WHAT WE VIEW AS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND FAIRLY-VALUED BETA ENVIRONMENT.
#CHINA $SHCOMP $SSEC $ASHR $HSI $KWEB $FXI $HXC $DRAG $YINN $YANG @MKTNEWS24
🇨🇳GOLDMAN SACHS: CHINA STOCKS REMAIN RESILIENT, MAINTAINS "OVERWEIGHT" RATING.
#CHINA $SHCOMP $SSEC $ASHR $HSI $KWEB $FXI $HXC $DRAG $YINN $YANG @MKTNEWS24
- CN WIRE ...
