QCP: ETH long-term options flow reappears, price breakthrough is not driven by excessive speculation

Mars Finance News: On May 13, QCP released its daily market observation, stating that China and the United States agreed to temporarily reduce tariffs. This easing triggered a strong rise in risk assets, with the U.S. stock market opening with a 3% jump, and market expectations of cross-border trade recovery. Gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset and protectionist hedge tool, dropped nearly 3% after the announcement, then narrowed its decline. The market returned to a more traditional macro pattern - a strong dollar, rising bond yields, and weak gold - driving cross-asset volatility selling pressure. The VIX index fell to 18, and Bitcoin's front-end volatility compressed by over 5 volatility points. Bitcoin and Ethereum initially declined after the tariff news, currently stabilizing around $103,000 and $2,400, respectively. However, internal market rotation signs emerged. Bitcoin's market share has fallen below 63%, while other cryptocurrencies, especially Ethereum, began performing excellently. Bitcoin remains caught in a tug-of-war between "digital gold" and risk asset proxy roles, with this contradiction continuing to blur directional judgments. As the macro narrative shifts from protectionism to trade optimism, Bitcoin may maintain range-bound oscillation. Nevertheless, this macroeconomic shift could impact derivative fund flows. Longer investment cycles typically support back-end option demand, reduce front-end put option hedging needs, and lead to a steeper volatility curve. In contrast, Ethereum's funding rate remains neutral, with price breakthroughs not driven by speculative excess. The price breakthrough of $2,400 coincides with the Pectra upgrade launch, beginning to see longer-term option flow reappearing, which could be an early signal of Ethereum positioning as the market's next major allocation asset.