Bitcoin enters a 15-20 year cycle with growth rates surpassing traditional assets, gradually becoming a global "value storage".
Bitcoin is transitioning from its initial explosive phase to a more mature role in the global financial system. According to expert Willy Woo's analysis, this leading digital currency is entering a long-term development cycle spanning 15-20 years, with potential that outperforms most public investment products.
Sharing on social media X on Sunday, Woo analyzed changes in Bitcoin's Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). "Many think BTC is like a mythical unicorn climbing to infinity on moonbeams," Woo commented, emphasizing that the period of dizzying growth over 100% annually like in 2017 ended long ago.
According to Woo, 2020 marked a crucial turning point when Bitcoin began to be "institutionalized" with capital flows from large institutions and even nations entering the market. "From that year, corporations and even states began accumulating," he explained.
The participation of institutional investors has reduced Bitcoin's CAGR from three-digit levels to around 30-40%, and this trend continues in recent years. Woo believes this phenomenon reflects the maturation of the Bitcoin network and its increasingly large role as a global capital storage channel.
Bitcoin's New Role in Macroeconomics
"BTC is now traded as the newest macro asset in 150 years; it will continue to absorb capital until reaching a balanced state," Woo emphasized, highlighting Bitcoin's increasingly important position in the global financial system.
Looking long-term, Woo predicts Bitcoin's CAGR will ultimately stabilize according to macroeconomic trends. "Considering long-term monetary expansion of around 5% and GDP growth of about 3%, I believe BTC's CAGR will stop at 8%," he noted.
Although 8% seems modest compared to Bitcoin's early explosive years, Woo remains confident in the asset's long-term performance. "From now until then — perhaps 15-20 years from now — enjoy the journey, because almost no public investment product can match BTC's long-term performance, even as its CAGR continues to gradually decrease," he concluded.
