In this seemingly winner-takes-all feast, one perspective suggests that its massive traffic is "overflowing" into ecosystems like Sui and Solana, injecting vitality. However, what is the true nature of this overflow effect? What profound impact will this "fur rubbing" carnival ignited by Binance Alpha ultimately bring to the industry?
Overflow of Traffic: Observation of Sui's Alpha Effect
The Binance Alpha point system mechanism has been detailed in previous articles, so it will not be repeated here. Generally, as more users participate, the final result is that the airdrop rewards have a clear upper limit, and the point threshold becomes increasingly higher. In this situation, users must further compress costs to maintain profit margins.
[Rest of the translation follows the same approach, maintaining the original structure and translating the text to English while preserving the <> tags and specific terminology translations as specified.]Project Dilemma: Peak Upon Launch or Value Discovery?
Apart from the ecosystem perspective, for project teams, will the price soar after listing on Binance Alpha? From a data standpoint, the 23 tokens listed in May averaged a -5.04% price change. The largest decline reached 75%. Although the charts show these projects experienced price surges shortly after Binance Alpha listing, the momentum typically subsides with a significant pullback. This suggests that Binance Alpha listing does not guarantee a large MC memecoin's birth, but merely adds another trading port.
Moreover, for projects with initial launches and airdrop activities, market favor seems elusive. The 7 tokens with airdrop activities in May averaged a 31.5% decline, with all tokens in a downward trend as of May 14th. This indicates that airdrops and volume-boosting activities cannot drive price trends upward.
Overall, Binance Alpha listed projects averaged a market cap of $70 million, with the lowest token market cap around $1.6 million and MOODENG reaching $271 million. Notably, several new Solana ecosystem tokens averaged over $100 million in market cap, suggesting higher ecosystem requirements.
Endgame of Involution: Professional Players' Arena and Users' Exit
For the ecosystem and projects, Binance Alpha represents exposure and traffic concentration. For users, current involution is eliminating ordinary users, becoming an arena for professional studios and whales. With point thresholds reaching 205 points, users must complete at least 15 points daily to catch up. With a $1,000 principal (earning 2 points), users need additional daily trading volumes of $8,000 to accumulate points. Daily slippage + Gas fees might exceed $10. Failing to reach the next threshold or receiving minimal airdrops could result in a lose-lose scenario. The latest RDAC token airdrop results barely yielded $25, hardly covering the 205-point cost.
Predictably, point thresholds will continue rising, and current rules suggest exponential trading volume increases with higher point requirements. Binance Alpha must either increase per-address airdrop amounts or witness mass user exodus, allowing point thresholds to return to a reasonable range. Regardless, this involution game seems near its endpoint. BSC chain's DEX trading volume has begun declining, dropping 16.4% from $3.16 billion on May 12th to $2.64 billion on May 15th.
Comprehensively, Binance Alpha's "traffic overflow" effect varies significantly across ecosystems. The Sui ecosystem did not absorb massive volume-boosting behaviors as expected, while the Solana ecosystem demonstrated stronger positive interaction and growth. For project teams, Alpha's short-term spotlight rarely translates to sustained value support, with price drops after initial peaks becoming the norm. Airdrop activities fail to rescue prices, with airdrop-providing projects becoming Binance wallet promotion "payers".
The core issue is that this point-driven carnival is ruthlessly pushing ordinary users off the table. Continuously rising point thresholds, exponentially growing trading volume demands, and diminishing airdrop returns are transforming Binance Alpha into a "zero-sum game" for professional studios and whales. The recent decline in BSC chain's DEX trading volume seemingly signals that this high-intensity "involution" model approaches its sustainability threshold.
