More worryingly, market sentiment has prematurely discounted technical expectations. SOON mainnet TPS (30,000), while higher than mainstream Rollups, relies on the Celestia DA layer that has not yet undergone large-scale stress testing, and actual performance may be discounted by 30%-50%. Once the mainnet goes live and encounters downtime or security incidents, the supporting logic of FDV will quickly collapse.
III. Worsening Competitive Landscape: Shortened Window of Technical First-Mover Advantage
SOON's core narrative - decoupling SVM and modular architecture - is facing direct challenges from projects like Eclipse and Movement. Eclipse has secured $50 million in financing led by Polychain Capital and announced a universal Rollup based on SVM on Solana, with developer tool compatibility and ecosystem resource integration capabilities superior to SOON. Additionally, the cost advantage of Celestia's native DA layer (60% lower than SOON) further weakens the persuasiveness of its modular story.
In terms of market share, SOON's testnet has only attracted over 80 DApps to migrate, while Arbitrum and zkSync have over 3,000 developers during the same period. The lagging nature of ecosystem cold start may cause it to become a "technical laboratory" rather than an actual application layer.
IV. Investment Advice: Risk Avoidance in a High Volatility Cycle
In summary, SOON token will enter a concentrated risk release period in May-August 2025:
- Short-term (1-3 months): Liquidity premium during Binance Alpha's initial listing may drive the price up to $0.4-0.5, but as the first round of Non-Fungible Token unlocking approaches in August, market panic may trigger a pullback, with support level looking at $0.22.
- Medium-term (6-12 months): Team and institutional token unlocking in Q1 2026 may create a second selling pressure. If TVL does not break through $200 million during the same period, the FDV/TVL ratio will regress to the industry average, and the token price may halve to the $0.1-0.15 range.
- Long-term (over 1 year): As the modular track competition intensifies, if SOON fails to achieve a breakthrough in cross-chain interoperability, the token may become a mere "governance tool", losing its value capture ability.
For investors with low risk appetite, it is recommended to wait and observe the on-chain data 3 months after mainnet launch (TVL, cross-chain asset scale, developer activity), and then strategically deploy after technical verification and token supply-demand rebalancing.
Conclusion: Valuation Trap Under Innovative Narrative
While SOON's modular vision aligns with industry evolution trends, its token model design and market competitive landscape have not yet formed a safety margin. When the technological halo fades, the resonance of unlocking selling pressure and valuation bubbles may trigger a Davis double kill. At this stage of the Layer2 war entering the "application landing" decisive phase, investors should focus more on the ecosystem's real value creation, rather than the involution game of technical parameters.
