Source: If You Miss This Bitcoin Run, Don't Say You Weren't Told
Compiled & Translated by: lenaxin, ChainCatcher
Editor's Note:
This article is compiled from a video interview between Anthony Pompliano and Jordi Visser, a macro strategic investment expert with 30 years of Wall Street experience. Jordi provides a unique perspective on the current economic situation. In the interview, Jordi delves into hot topics such as inflation, stock markets, Bitcoin, AI, and analyzes why market trends often deviate from mainstream expectations.
ChainCatcher has compiled and translated the content.
TL&DR
- The traditional economic textbook definition of "economic recession" has lost its explanatory power in the contemporary economic structure
- The market is beginning to view Bitcoin as an indispensable part of asset allocation
- Continuous currency devaluation is an inevitable trend
- Self-investors, independent investors, and retail investors are the true market drivers
- The essence of the "Federal Reserve put" is perpetual currency devaluation
- The core driving factor of Bitcoin price trends lies in the changing correlation between the US dollar index and US Treasury yields
- Structural changes in capital flows are more worth noting than short-term economic fluctuations
- Tariff policies causing currency backflow will continuously pressure the US dollar, thereby affecting the yield curve
- AI industry's strong performance in Q1 strongly supported overall economic indicators
- In the current exponential development of AI, the importance of historical experience is declining
Jordi Visser: Based on the latest data disclosed by Stripe, AI programming tools represented by Cursor have achieved $300 million in annual recurring revenue, jointly driving a structural transformation of software development paradigms alongside innovative products like Replit and Windsurf.
Although AI cannot yet replace the top 2% of programmers, it can already replace 80% of basic coding work, and this proportion continues to rise.
The impact of technological change can be compared to offensive tactics in rugby: startups only need to break through a few "defensive lines", while large enterprises are constrained by architecture, inertia, and compliance, making their transformation more costly. This structural difference is the key variable explaining the efficiency disparity in enterprise digital transformation.
Especially for mid-sized enterprises (market cap $300 million to $2 billion), they face a dilemma: lacking the flexibility of startups while unable to enjoy scale advantages, with 63% carrying floating-rate debt, experiencing obvious pressure in an environment of 3.2% inflation. This "middle-layer predicament" highlights the structural costs of technological revolution.
Looking ahead to 2024-2029, S&P 500 companies will face direct impact from emerging tech companies. Will these disruptors still follow the traditional IPO route? Compared to armchair economists, frontline entrepreneurs are clearly more qualified to answer this question.
[The translation continues in the same manner for the entire text, maintaining the specified translations for specific terms like Bit, TRON, etc.]The current debt and fiscal deficit issues lack effective solutions, and the weakness of the US dollar will show a gradual characteristic. Although the Federal Reserve has not restarted quantitative easing, it is only reducing the reinvestment scale of maturing bonds by $5 billion per week. This "nominal tightening" policy is internally consistent with the strategy of Asian and European investors gradually reducing their holdings of US Treasury bonds - matured funds may not be fully reinvested.
More worthy of attention is the global competitive landscape of the AI industry. The technological advantages of US startups are facing global catch-up, and European developers are fully capable of developing products similar to Cursor and Replit. If the market position of Mag7 enterprises is shaken, the global income redistribution will trigger a restructuring of capital flow patterns, and this structural transformation is far more strategically significant than short-term capital attraction.
Disclaimer
The content of this article does not represent the views of ChainCatcher. The opinions, data, and conclusions in the text represent the personal positions of the original author or interviewee. The translation team maintains a neutral attitude and does not endorse its accuracy. It does not constitute any professional advice or guidance. Readers should use it cautiously based on independent judgment. This translation is limited to the purpose of knowledge sharing. Readers are requested to strictly comply with local laws and regulations and not participate in any illegal financial activities.
