The global macroeconomic environment is undergoing profound adjustments, and the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin's price volatility, is increasingly influenced by complex macro conditions.
Recently, HTX Research, a research institution under HTX, released the latest research report "Macro New Landscape and Bitcoin Outlook: In-depth Perspective on Liquidity, Risk Appetite, Policy Game, and Investment Strategies", comprehensively analyzing the impact of the global macroeconomic environment on the Bitcoin market and providing investors with a clear market outlook and investment guidance.
Bitcoin Market Outlook under Macro Environment: Liquidity and Market Risk Appetite
Currently, the global macro environment is complex and volatile. Factors such as the Fed's cooling rate cut expectations, continued quantitative tightening (QT), the US Treasury TGA account reflux, and the Bank of Japan's rate hike expectations have collectively led to tight short-term liquidity. Fed Chairman Powell maintains a "data-first" stance, with a strong US job market (April non-farm employment added 177,000, unemployment rate 4.2%) and potential tariff inflation impact (Q3 CPI may return to over 3%), reducing year-end rate cut expectations from three to two (September and December), with liquidity pressure limiting the upside for risk assets like Bitcoin. Additionally, the Bank of Japan's rate hike and Japanese yen carry trade unwinding further tighten global liquidity. In the short term (next 1-3 months), market liquidity expectations are tight, potentially limiting the upside for risk assets like Bitcoin, but optimistic sentiment in risk appetite may continue in the short term, with caution towards technical corrections and volatility from sudden news.
In the medium term (3-12 months), liquidity will gradually improve, with significant uncertainty in market risk appetite, and Bitcoin market opportunities and challenges coexisting. If the Fed starts rate cuts and ends QT in the second half of 2025, coupled with coordinated easing by global central banks, liquidity is expected to marginally improve, providing a rebound window for Bitcoin. Potential market sentiment boosters include progress in US-China tariff 90-day buffer period negotiations, easing of geopolitical tensions in Russia-Ukraine and India-Pakistan regions, continued institutional entry (global listed companies holding over 688,000 bitcoins, accounting for 3.28% of total supply), and exploration of federal and state-level "strategic Bitcoin reserve" policies. However, if inflation exceeds expectations or geopolitical risks escalate, risk-averse sentiment may put market pressure. Investors need to closely monitor Fed policies, macro data, tariff negotiations, and regulatory developments, and adjust strategies flexibly.
Positive Signals of Crypto-Friendly Policies in Policy Negotiations: Potential Easing in Stablecoin Regulation?
Policy negotiations are profoundly affecting the crypto market. On May 21, the Hong Kong Legislative Council passed the "Stablecoin Ordinance Draft", establishing a licensing system for fiat stablecoin issuers and improving the regulatory framework for virtual asset activities.
More profound and complex policy impacts are occurring in the United States. The Trump administration's "Huge Beautiful Tax Law" plan (tax cuts of $5 trillion over the next 10 years) stimulates market sentiment in the short term, but expanded fiscal deficits and debt ceiling issues may cause liquidity fluctuations. On the regulatory front, the US Senate is pushing stablecoin legislation - the "GENIUS Act" stablecoin bill negotiations have reached 90% consensus, aiming to provide a regulatory framework through 100% high-quality asset-backed support. Additionally, US stock tokenization is accelerating, with the SEC and traditional financial institutions (like JPMorgan) actively positioning, expecting the tokenization of real-world assets to reach $18.9 trillion by 2030, expanding new scenarios for digital assets. Federal and state-level "strategic Bitcoin reserve" legislative attempts (such as New Hampshire's H.B. 302) further elevate Bitcoin's strategic status, providing policy endorsement for institutional entry.
Seizing the Opportunity: HTX Launches USD1 and Multiple Compliant Stablecoins with Zero Fee Exchange Service
Under the global policy relaxation expectations and regulatory transparency trend, stablecoins, as the liquidity foundation and value anchor of the crypto market, are increasingly prominent. HTX is seizing market opportunities by recently launching multiple compliant stablecoins, including USD1 (World Liberty Financial USD), USDQ (Quantoz), EURQ (Quantoz), USDR (StablR), EURR (StablR), meeting users' diverse investment needs and improving capital efficiency. To celebrate USD1's launch and lower user participation barriers, HTX is offering zero fee exchange service, with USD1/USDT spot trading pair enjoying 0 fee promotion until December 31, 2025, 23:59 (GMT+8). Users can maximize capital utilization without additional costs. HTX is committed to providing global users with safe, efficient, and high-quality crypto financial services.
Additionally, in terms of investment strategies, HTX Research report analyzed multiple stablecoin financial products, including Backpack's USD lending with approximately 4.94% annual yield, Resolv's USR with up to 15% annual yield, Aave+Pendle combination strategy with around 10% annual yield, Falcon's USDf with over 10% annual yield, Coinshift's csUSDL with about 10% annual yield, etc.
The report concludes that the Bitcoin market needs to be cautious of short-term liquidity pressure and volatility risks, but may see a rebound in the medium to long term driven by policy clarity and institutional entry. HTX will continue to follow market and policy trends, helping users seize opportunities and steadily increase value in the complex crypto market.
To read the full report, visit: https://square.htx.com/htx-research-zui-xin-yan-bao/
About HTX Research
HTX Research is the dedicated research department of HTX Group, responsible for in-depth analysis of cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends, writing comprehensive reports, and providing professional assessments. HTX Research is committed to providing data-driven insights and strategic foresight, playing a crucial role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting informed decisions in the digital asset field. With rigorous research methods and cutting-edge data analysis, HTX Research remains at the forefront of innovation, leading industry thought development and promoting deep understanding of evolving market dynamics.
For communication, please contact research@htx-inc.com
