风无向🎒🔆's Insight

06-02

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has a Labubu hidden blind box, my girlfriend told me that the probability is one in 800, and she has drawn many times without getting it. I became curious about how much the hidden version costs. The hidden version is 2000 yuan, and the blind box itself is 99 yuan. That means the item you have a one in 800 chance of getting is worth 20 times the price. The expected value has dropped to rock bottom. So the official scalpers, as long as they manipulate the hidden version, can make those young girls who don't understand expected value obediently spend their pocket money. How despicable! However, I said, why not just buy one directly? She said the sense of achievement from drawing it cannot be compared. Yes, I remember once I helped her open a hidden blind box, and she jumped up happily making a video like a child. That was her first time getting a hidden version. Perhaps they don't understand odds, they only understand the sense of achievement and happiness, which is also a form of happiness. We professional traders calculate odds for everything and weigh pros and cons in everything, so who is truly happier? In the end, both the hidden blind box and the girl have gone far away, becoming a memory.

Previously, Pop Mart blind boxes (not labubu) could be bought from online mini programs as "unopened, but confirmed style" blind boxes that were given to you by others (someone resells them on Xianyu, and they can only be given once in the mini program). In this way, you can spend 2,000 to buy a confirmed hidden version, and then buy a random one, and let her open the two unopened ones by herself (but she doesn't know that one of them is confirmed hidden). This way, she is 100% guaranteed to get the same happiness of accidentally opening a rare hidden one, and you are also happy because of her happiness, and you haven't been cheated by negative ev, isn't it good? However, it is not clear whether labubu still has the online unopened + confirmed style transfer function.

You are good at picking up girls.

Optimizations that can be made from a psychological perspective: It is best to put an inconspicuous small mark on the blind box, and then when it is time to open it, guide her to open the truly random one first, and then open the confirmed hidden one, so that the emotional value of the process of risking life and then surviving death will be maximized.

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.

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