Source: Block Weekly
Original Title: Musk's Party Formation Probability Soars to 17%, 400 Million Bet Placed on "The America Party"
Is his "America Party" concept a sudden whim or a carefully considered strategy?
Could Elon Musk potentially establish a new political party "The America Party" in 2025? This bold idea has sparked heated discussion on the crypto betting market Polymarket, with the probability of success surging to 17%! Meanwhile, Musk's public "confrontation" with Trump continues to escalate, and Tesla's stock price is experiencing significant volatility. What story lies behind this? Let's investigate!
Musk's Party Formation Probability Rises, Polymarket and X Join Forces
According to the latest data from the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, as of now, the probability of Musk creating a new party in 2025 has surged from 7% in June to 17%, rising an additional 2% in the past 24 hours. The betting amount has exceeded $416 million! Polymarket clearly states that if Musk releases an "explicit" official statement, the market will determine it as "yes".
More notably, Musk's X platform recently announced an official partnership with Polymarket, with Polymarket becoming X's official prediction market partner. The strong collaboration between the two will combine Polymarket's prediction data with X's real-time dynamics, providing users with more precise trend insights. This further fuels discussions about Musk's potential party formation.
[Image links omitted]
Fun Fact: Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market platform where users can bet on future events using cryptocurrency. However, due to regulatory restrictions, US residents currently cannot participate.
Musk and Trump "Clash", Party Formation Plan Emerges
[Image links omitted]
The trigger for this heated discussion stems from the increasingly intense public dispute between Musk and former US President Trump.
Incident Origin: Musk accused the Trump administration of withholding documents related to Jeffrey Epstein, causing a major controversy.
Trump's Counterattack: Trump publicly stated he was "disappointed" in Musk, calling him "crazy" and threatening to cancel federal contracts and subsidies for Musk's companies.
Musk's Rebuttal: Musk not only criticized Trump's tariff policies as potentially "causing an economic recession in the US" but also reshared a post suggesting "Trump should be impeached", intensifying the confrontation.
As their dispute escalates, Musk launched a notable poll on X platform: "Is it time to establish a new party representing 80% of moderates in the US?"
The voting results showed over 5.63 million participants, with 80.4% supporting the establishment of a new party and only 19.6% opposing. Musk subsequently reshared the results, announcing the new party would be named "The America Party", stating: "The people have spoken, this is destiny!"
[Image links omitted]
Tesla Stock Price Roller Coaster, Strong Market Reaction
Musk and Trump's dispute not only ignited public opinion but also directly impacted the capital market.
June 5th: Tesla's stock price, affected by their verbal battle, plummeted 18% at one point, narrowing to a 14% drop at closing, with market value evaporating approximately $153 billion, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly three months.
June 6th: Tesla's stock price rebounded 4.3% in early US trading but failed to fully recover previous losses.
This turbulence has left investors uncertain about Musk's business empire and political moves, adding more drama to the potential establishment of "The America Party"
"The America Party" Vision: Representing 80% of Moderates?
Musk's core idea for "The America Party" is to represent the "middle 80%", attempting to break the traditional two-party system in the US. This idea has sparked widespread discussion:
Supporters believe: Musk's influence and resources might promote a new party centered on rationality, science, and innovation, attracting moderate voters tired of traditional politics.
Opponents question: Party formation requires massive organizational and financial support, and Musk's controversial statements and conflict with Trump might weaken his political appeal.
Regardless, Musk's "The America Party" concept has undoubtedly dropped a heavyweight bomb into the US political arena.
[Image links omitted]
Will Musk Take the First Step in Party Formation?
Although Musk and Trump's dispute showed brief "reconciliation" signals on the 5th evening, Trump again called Musk "crazy" the next day, and their relationship remains tense. Will Musk's party formation plan transform from X platform's vision to reality? Polymarket's 17% probability might just be the beginning.
Meanwhile, X and Polymarket's collaboration will provide more real-time data, offering insights into this event's trajectory. Musk's next move, whether continuing to challenge Trump or formally preparing "The America Party", will become a global focus in 2025.
Conclusion
From tech giant to political newcomer, every step Musk takes draws global attention. Is his "The America Party" concept a sudden whim or a carefully considered strategy? Let's wait and see!
What do you think?
Do you believe Musk will actually establish "The America Party" in 2025? Welcome to share your views in the comments!
Do you want Musk to form a party?
