According to ChainCatcher and Jin Shi's report, China Merchants Securities released a research report stating that the US CPI in May was again slightly lower than expected. The year-on-year CPI rose from 2.3% to 2.4%, lower than Bloomberg's expected 2.5%; the year-on-year core CPI remained at 2.8%, lower than Bloomberg's expected 2.9%. The month-on-month CPI was 0.1%, lower than the expected and previous value of 0.2%; the month-on-month core CPI was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.3% and previous value of 0.2%.
Unless Trump continues to suspend or cancel reciprocal tariffs through negotiations this year, the upward risk of inflation remains worth noting. The next two to three months are an important window for the Federal Reserve to observe inflation, and before that, it is highly likely to remain on hold (the CPI situation for June to August can be seen before the September FOMC meeting).
