6 月 23 日，尽管昨晚伊朗议会批准关闭霍尔木兹海峡。但 Polymarket 上「伊朗 7 月前关闭霍尔木兹海峡」概率降至 28%。

<div><p>6 月 23 日，尽管昨晚伊朗议会批准关闭霍尔木兹海峡。但 Polymarket 上「伊朗 7 月前关闭霍尔木兹海峡」概率降至 28%。</p></div>

Polymarket上「伊朗7月前关闭霍尔木兹海峡」概率降至28%

On June 23, despite the Iranian parliament's approval to close the Hormuz Strait last night, the probability of "Iran closing the Hormuz Strait before July" on Polymarket has dropped to 28%.

<div><p>On June 23, despite the Iranian parliament's approval to close the Strait of Hormuz last night, the probability of "Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz before July" on Polymarket has dropped to 28%.</p></div>

The probability of "Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz before July" on Polymarket has dropped to 28%

In the crypto world, what truly determines victory is never code, but the interplay between liquidity, power, and regulation. The rise and fall of BUSD is not merely a tragic tale of a stablecoin, but a financial war waged by exchanges attempting to "unify the world."

When BUSD was thrust onto the historical stage, it carried not only a compliance narrative, but also Binance's ambition to reshape the stablecoin order through coercive measures—by manipulating exchange rates and merging trading pairs, directly swallowing competitors' liquidity into its own ledger.

The "automatic conversion" of 2022 was a textbook example of a blitzkrieg; and 2023...

The Rise and Fall of Binance's Dominance: From BUSD's "Unification" to $U's "Conquering the World"—The Stablecoin Wars

Source: Galaxy Research; Translation: Jinse Finance xz
Bitcoin's closing price in 2025 is expected to be roughly the same as the level at the beginning of the year.
The cryptocurrency market experienced a genuine bullish wave in the first ten months of this year. Regulatory reforms continued to advance, ETFs continued to attract funds, and on-chain activity became increasingly active. Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,080 on October 6th.
However, the market failed to deliver the expected breakthrough after the initial frenzy; instead, it experienced rotation, repricing, and rebalancing. This was driven by factors such as unmet macroeconomic expectations, a shift in investment narratives, leveraged margin calls, and massive...

Galaxy: 26 Predictions for the Crypto Market in 2026

Original article | Odaily Odaily(@OdailyChina)
Author | Asher (@Asher_0210)
On December 17, dingaling, the founder of the prediction market platform predict.fun, announced on the X platform that the platform has been officially launched and airdropped initial points to Meme traders on BNB Chain, Aster participants, and active users of various prediction markets.
Compared to traditional market forecasting firms like Polymarket and Kalshi...