Bitcoin promoter becomes blue chip stock, can MicroStrategy be included in the S&P 500 index?
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As Bitcoin's price continues to rise, MicroStrategy Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), the pioneer of Bitcoin reserve strategy, holds 592,345 Bitcoins valued at up to $63.8 billion. MicroStrategy's market value has reached $106.2 billion, rising to 93rd place among the largest listed companies in the United States. With the upcoming S&P 500 quarterly adjustment, will Strategy have a chance to be included? If it enters the S&P 500 index, Bitcoin will begin to "automatically permeate into all portfolios," including traditional 401k, retirement funds, and passive investment portfolios, potentially boosting MSTR's stock price.
The S&P 500 index is a US stock market index compiled by Standard & Poor's, consisting of 500 large US listed companies, and is one of the most representative indices of the US stock market. The index uses market capitalization-weighted method, where each component stock's weight is proportional to its market value.
To be included in the S&P 500 index, a stock must meet the following conditions:
- Headquartered in the United States
- Market value exceeding $18 billion (subject to market adjustments)
- Positive profits for the most recent four quarters and the most recent quarter
- Active stock trading, high liquidity, and most shares in public hands
The S&P 500 index components are adjusted quarterly by the index committee under Standard & Poor's.
Currently, Strategy's market value has reached $106.2 billion, ranking 93rd in US market capitalization, with active stock trading and high liquidity. However, due to the new accounting standard ASU 2023-08 adopted this year, the first quarter recognized digital asset losses of $5.91 billion (calculated at Bitcoin price of $82,444 at the end of the quarter), with profitability being the biggest obstacle to entering the index.
Analyst Jeff Walton estimates that if Bitcoin's price closes above $95,240 by the end of June, it could bring significant book gains, thereby increasing its chances of entering the S&P 500, with a success probability of up to 94.2%.
The three largest ETFs tracking the S&P 500 index currently include:
- SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust): Asset size of $611 billion
- IVV (BlackRock's iShares Core S&P 500): Asset size of $566.9 billion
- VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF): Asset size of $686.5 billion
With these three ETFs having a total market value of $1.86 trillion, even at the lowest weight of 0.01%, it could attract $180 million in capital inflow. MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings would also indirectly flow into traditional 401k, retirement funds, and passive investment portfolios.
Risk Warning: Cryptocurrency investment carries high risks, and prices may fluctuate dramatically. You may lose all your principal. Please carefully assess the risks.
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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