On July 7th, trader Eugene released his trading record and market insights as follows:
"I anticipate a breakthrough this week - after careful consideration, I have chosen ETH as my target asset. After late 2024 and early 2025, I had sworn never to touch it again, but now I realize that ETH's market positioning and tailwind factors have significantly changed. These changes can be summarized as follows:
1. After the 'nuclear explosion' in April 2025, positions were significantly reduced - the comprehensive surrender of traders and whale investors caused ETH to drop from $4,000 to $1,300, with ETHBTC also touching a multi-year low of 0.018. Since then, ETH's trading pattern has been completely different from the past two years. I rarely see anyone besides developers treating $ETH as a core investment target, and most traders I've encountered refuse to touch it. This means that from a long-term structural perspective, $ETH's market positioning has never been this light in the past three years.
2. ETH will become the infrastructure/stablecoin investment target for mainstream institutions and traditional finance - many people have been advocating this recently, and my initial reaction was 'Oh, come on' (I imagine many of you reading this had the same reaction). However, if you objectively consider the recent regulatory developments in the US, institutions will eventually want more than just BTC. Today, over 90% of stablecoins are hosted on ETH, and it is likely to continue to be the main chain guaranteeing these total value locked (TVL). Anyone can see the upcoming stablecoin boom, and from a business perspective, deviating from ETH makes no sense given the higher risks involved in using other layer-one networks. Now add Tom Lee, who is almost obsessively mimicking Michael Saylor (CEO of MicroStrategy), successfully convincing traditional financial institutions that ETH is a project worth supporting. I was initially very skeptical of this view, but given the massive demand for cryptocurrency equity from traditional financial institutions and the stablecoin bill passed in the US, I have gradually accepted this perspective.
3. ETH needs to catch up with BTC in price - this point alone means nothing, but if momentum begins to form, it can easily be hyped up. Traditional finance is usually 'stupid', which means the argument that 'you can still get in early by buying ETH' is not entirely unreasonable, because who the marginal buyer is matters. Pushing ETH back to its historical high (about an 85% increase) would only bring ETHBTC back to 0.044, which is equivalent to the level in September 2024. Even if ETHBTC doesn't break through and I'm completely wrong, as long as BTC breaks $110,000, it likely means the return of a bull market, and ETH rarely performs poorly during these periods. ETH's weakness usually occurs when BTC begins to stagnate or start declining.
I have carefully considered this issue and still believe that from a medium to long-term structural perspective, ETH's investment value is clear, and I have adjusted my investment portfolio accordingly."
