IOSG founder: Pumpfun pre-sale is more like the team’s final exit

After an in-depth analysis of its remarkable past performance and worrying current situation, I believe this is likely a high-risk gamble rather than a stable investment. Here are my core perspectives, which do not constitute any investment advice, and please be extremely cautious.

Since its launch in early 2024, Pump fun has experienced explosive growth, with cumulative protocol revenue reaching approximately $700 million, becoming one of the most profitable startups in the cryptocurrency field. Its team of less than 20 people, with an average age of just 21, has achieved remarkable results.

However, the myth is fading, and data does not lie.

Reality check:

Revenue plummeting: Daily revenue peaked at over $7 million on January 23, 2025, but has recently plummeted by over 92%, dropping to around $500,000.

Market cooling: The project's market value has dropped from millions to a freezing point of $50,000-$100,000.

Market share overtaken: According to the latest data, competitor LetsBonk has a 51% market share, while Pump fun has dropped to 39.9%.

Secondly, examining its tokenomics and risk exposure.

This ICO targets retail investors (15%) and institutions (18%), selling a total of 33% of tokens, corresponding to a financing amount of $1.32 billion. Along with previous fee income, the Pump fun team will hold nearly $2 billion in cash.

What does this mean for public investors?

An extremely unfriendly risk exposure:

Opaque governance structure: Decision-making process is a mystery.

Unclear team/investor release terms: This is the most fatal point. Without public lock-up and linear release rules, internal parties might immediately sell upon launch, transferring most risks to public investors.

Overvalued financing: Raising funds at a $4 billion valuation during an Altcoin downturn has already over-exhausted future growth potential.

The core point: What is the team's motivation?

I believe the team has neither the intention nor the ability to "pump" or "control" the market. They have already obtained enormous wealth through fees, and this ICO seems more like a final "value realization" (Exit Liquidity). In the current market environment with severely insufficient buying pressure, it cannot support such a high valuation. This is completely different from Hyperliquid's valuation support logic.

A reasonable token model should establish a balanced long-term relationship between project parties, early investors, and public investors. Pump fun's current plan completely breaks this balance due to severe lack of transparency and internal constraints.

Therefore, I consider this public fundraising to be a highly speculative gamble, not a fundamental investment. Invested funds should be risk capital that can be completely lost.

If you still have confidence in this team, I suggest:

Patient waiting: Wait until the token has been traded in the open market for a week before making a decision, observing the real market reaction.

Staged participation: Divide the planned investment into several parts, participating in batches a week/month after launch, which can effectively reduce your risk exposure.

The market has shown fatigue in the growth potential of MEME launch platforms and Altcoins. Please be cautious, and then be even more cautious.