PANews reported on July 12 that despite the tariff deadline on July 9 having passed, market participants still face numerous uncertainties. US President Trump has begun to notify tariff rates, with most countries still engaged in tense negotiations, and the tariff implementation date of August 1 is approaching. Cryptocurrency was another winner this week, with some analysis institutions pointing out that Bitcoin continues to hit new historical highs as institutional investors continue to pour in. Looking ahead to next week, the US will release the latest CPI data and the notorious retail sales data, which will affect when the Federal Reserve will cut rates. Additionally, investors need to be wary of how Trump might "stir things up" further. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week:
Tuesday at 14:45, 2025 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins will give a speech;
Tuesday at 21:15, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will deliver a welcome address at a Fed-hosted conference;
Wednesday at 00:45, Federal Reserve Governor Barr will speak at a Fed-hosted conference;
Wednesday at 02:45, 2025 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins will give a speech;
Wednesday at 07:45, Dallas Fed President Logan will speak about the US economy;
Wednesday at 21:15, Cleveland Fed President Harker will give a speech;
Thursday at 02:00, the Federal Reserve will publish the Beige Book on economic conditions;
Thursday at 20:30, US June retail sales month-on-month rate, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 12, July Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, June import price index month-on-month rate;
Thursday at 05:30, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak about the US economy and monetary policy;
Friday at 22:00, US July one-year inflation rate expectation initial value.
The risk of US CPI seems to be skewed downward, and inflation slowdown might prompt some market participants to restart bets on the possibility of a July rate cut, which in turn could end the recent recovery of the US dollar. Currently, market predictions suggest the data will rise, with the annual rate increasing from 2.4% in May to 2.7%, and the month-on-month rate rising from 0.1% to 0.3%. If this expectation proves true, it would undoubtedly be a major blow to the Federal Reserve's rate cut plans.
