HTX DeepThink: Bitcoin breaks new highs, and funds may accelerate the switch to altcoin assets amid global interest rate changes

Mars Finance News: HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) pointed out that as of July 15, 2025, Bitcoin strongly broke through its historical high, momentarily rising to around $122,850, sparking market expectations of an "altcoin activation season" - funds are spreading from BTC to high-beta assets like ETH, SOL, and DeFi. Options market signals indicate strong bullish demand, with put-call skew flipping from +2% to around +5%, implied volatility at recent low points, while open interest and trading volume notably increased after the breakthrough, with institutional positioning signals leaning towards a cautiously bullish direction.

Meanwhile, the Japanese bond market experienced severe volatility: the 20-year government bond yield surged to around 2.61%, and the 30-year bond yield broke through 3%, both new highs since 2000, reflecting market concerns about Japan's fiscal and interest rate normalization path, potentially triggering global arbitrage fund structural adjustments.

At the macro level, US-EU trade tensions escalated, with the EU planning to impose retaliatory tariffs on $8.4 billion worth of US products, while continuous pressure is being applied to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, increasing policy uncertainty. Although the market previously expected a September rate cut, strong employment data and policy interference have reduced the expectation to around 70%, and the upcoming June CPI data is expected to show core year-on-year inflation rising to 2.9%. If inflation continues to climb, it will be unfavorable to rate cut expectations and further push up US bond yields.

Overall, Bitcoin's current rise benefits from its safe-haven attributes and US dollar credit asset label. At a time when Japanese government bond yields are rising and global interest rate structures may be approaching an inflection point, combined with the options market's bullish structure, this provides a crucial structural basis for funds shifting from BTC to altcoin assets.