According to ChainCatcher, the French Foreign Trade Bank stated that if the EU and the United States have not reached an agreement by August 1, the EU will take the first round of retaliatory measures, and the European Commission is also developing a second set of countermeasures.
Previously, in the latest macroeconomic forecast for the Eurozone, the impact of a "severe scenario" estimated that the United States would impose a 20% tariff on all goods, with a corresponding retaliation from the EU. This scenario is expected to reduce the Eurozone's GDP annual growth rate by 0.4 percentage points in 2025 and 2026 compared to the baseline scenario. If the U.S. tariffs on EU goods increase to 30% and the EU retaliates equally, the Eurozone's GDP loss would be more significant, estimated to be about 0.5 percentage points lower than the baseline scenario in 2025 and about 0.6 percentage points lower in 2026.
However, the French Foreign Trade Bank still believes that although unlikely, the chance of successfully reaching an agreement before August 1 still exists. Otherwise, under pressure from the European side, especially from the market and U.S. companies, the "deadline" may be postponed again.
