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ToggleBitcoin (BTC) may be entering the final stage of its current price cycle, as historical fractal patterns based on halving events suggest that the next market peak could appear in October, just about three months away.
Bitcoin May Reach Peak Around $150,000 in October
A "tick-tock" fractal model identified by analyst CryptoBullet indicates that Bitcoin typically reaches its cycle peak between 518 to 546 days after each halving. With the most recent halving event occurring on April 15, 2024, this model suggests that Bitcoin's next peak could fall between mid-September to late October 2025, aligning with previous historical cycles.
By the end of July, Bitcoin has approached an important time marker, with only about 77 days left if history repeats, before setting the peak of the post-halving price cycle. Analyst CryptoBullet emphasizes: "BTC PRICE CYCLE: Only 3 months left. Tick tock, tick tock."
Based on the "tick-tock" fractal model, October is emerging as a potential timeframe for Bitcoin's next cycle peak. Many market analysts are currently predicting BTC will reach between $130,000 to $150,000 before year-end, while some more optimistic perspectives set targets as high as $200,000, if market momentum and institutional capital flows continue to be maintained.
Long-Term Investors Have Not Yet Divested Capital
On-chain data continues to reinforce the argument that a new Bitcoin price surge may be forming in the coming months. According to analyst Axel Adler Jr. from CryptoQuant, an important indicator comparing activity between long-term and new investors shows that "new" coins, representing recent buyers, currently account for only about 30% of total market activity.
This implies that most Bitcoin remains in the hands of long-term holders, who have not shown signs of taking profits, and this is typically the foundation supporting a sustainable growth cycle ahead.
The indicator shows new investors currently represent only about 30% of market activity, significantly lower than previous peaks of 64% in March 2024 and 72% in December 2024. Notably, both these high points coincided with local Bitcoin price peaks, suggesting that when the market is dominated by new investors, it is often a sign of widespread excitement and profit-taking.
Conversely, the current 30% ratio indicates the market still has room for growth before reaching an overheated state. The gradually rising trend of this indicator reflects new funds continuing to enter, while long-term holders have not shown clear signs of divesting. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. further comments: "Old investors are selling moderately. The 0.3 factor shows that the supply from coins held over three years is being well absorbed by new demand, without creating significant price volatility" and "From the perspective of old wallet divestment risk, the current market remains in a balanced state."
Bitcoin's continuous balanced state largely stems from stable absorption from large institutions. ETF funds and listed companies continue to steadily accumulate BTC, effectively offsetting short-term selling pressure and helping maintain a stable market structure. This stable demand from institutional players has helped control the risk of deep corrections, keeping the market "structurally healthy" as Bitcoin gradually enters the final months of its current growth cycle.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading decisions involve risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
