In the past two days' market, some caught the rebound and ran, while others rushed in and got trapped - the familiar "some are happy, some are sad" scenario. Which category do you belong to?
Yesterday's rebound of BTC and ETH was actually just a "survival wave". I previously warned that the structure does not support a strong rebound, and it would at most be a oscillating repair, without conditions for sustained upward movement. If you're still fantasizing about buying the dips and taking off, you'll probably have to wait for another downward strike.
Recommended detailed article:Battle for the week coming? BTC may drop to 10,000, 600,000 ETH about to be dumped! Smart money withdrawing, Fed "dovish" September rate cut? What to do next?
BTC and ETH short and long-term market overview:
Currently, BTC and ETH's trends do not support short-term strong attacks. BTC continues to oscillate around 114K, while ETH hovers around 3600, looking somewhat strong but with very limited rebound space.
#BTC: Has touched 113,000, trend remains weak, 4-hour chart still suppressed by MA30, no obvious bottom-forming signs on daily level, likely to retest 112,000 today;
#ETH: Although only reaching around 3550, overall performance is relatively strong, currently stable above MA5, hourly line forming a flag pattern, but without consecutive lower shadows, still inclined to callback in short term, watching 3500 support.
Communication+Q: 3806326575 Bulls have a rebound, but sentiment hasn't picked up, suggesting caution. What I'm truly focused on is the moment BTC breaks new lows, ETH retests 3500 or lower. That's when structural opportunities emerge.
If you're a 4-hour short-term trader, "running after a rebound over 3%" is currently the best approach to handling volatility. Don't fantasize about capturing the entire market move, just focus on breaking even.
Altcoin side is at a "even dogs despise" stage. Not much to see these past two days:
- $ASR, #TUT, #SPK (strong hot spot continuity)
- #PROVE and #TOWNS (just listed on Binance, suspicious timing, small position probe)
- PUMP, #NEWT, LTC (already ambushed, this rebound lift is quite good)
Be cautious in the near term, control around 10%, prevent being washed out! Brief summary of first-tier chain projects worth tracking:
- Tracking: #TROLL, $GOR, #SPARK, $DONKEY
- Avoid: $AiMau (many have already stepped on landmines), $BROCCOLI714 is about to collapse
First-tier rhythm is slow, but new projects emerge constantly, pay attention to screening early targets aligned with narrative. In the past 24 hours, crypto market overall dropped 1.6%, weekly cumulative decline approaching 4%. Fear and Greed Index dropped to 55, market sentiment quickly cooling. Bitcoin fell about 9% from its high point, most altcoins generally dropping 20%-30%.
The root of this decline is actually macro-level sudden pressure:
- Trump released new tariff threats
- Geopolitical tensions continuously heating up
- US economic data "scissor difference" widening, market unable to determine direction
Personal judgment: Opportunities before September are at "scared out" low points
I don't believe this decline is a bear market signal, but rather a cleansing phase before the next market move. Current strongest key support levels:
- BTC: $110,000
- ETH: $3,200
Communication+V: c13298103401 Currently just waiting for trend confirmation, once confirmed it's the start of a new upward move. Historical experience tells us: Every major FUD is followed by a true reversal market. From M2 velocity perspective, global liquidity isn't fully eased but also far from being completely tightened, leaving main players significant operational space.
My personal strategy is very clear: The longer the oscillation, the better opportunity for gradual low-cost buying. Currently, large funds are taking advantage of volatility to accumulate. For instance, on August 3rd, a wallet associated with Shraplink bought 36 million ETH. Today, large amounts of ETH are also in circulation.
Summary: Don't be scared away by momentary fluctuations. The true "altcoin season" hasn't started yet, and the current rhythm is the best time for you to slowly ambush and reserve. The market isn't lacking direction, it's waiting for you to endure the loneliness.
From August to October, this period might be the key window determining annual profit and loss. Article ends here! If you're feeling lost in crypto, consider joining me in layout and harvesting from market makers! Follow public account: Crypto Little Meow y
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