ChainCatcher reports that, according to Golden Ten data, CICC found that tariffs have actually caused a partial rebound in US inflation, but seasonal adjustment method defects have underestimated inflation by nearly 20 basis points in the past two months, and the CPI reading has not yet reflected the true situation of inflation rebound.
It is predicted that the month-on-month CPI may confirm the turning point of upward trend in the next 1-2 months, with the earliest verification possible on August 12. The year-on-year CPI upward cycle may last for about a year, and the inflation increase can be estimated using the input-output table. As the US inflation enters an upward cycle, it may interfere with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pace, bringing new variables to global assets.
