I got it Jon. Unfortunately yes it is different. Markets, and therefore the valuations of assets in these markets, take into account all known information available to market participants. This methodology does not do that. Below I will give one example from other markets, and two crypto specfiic examples. Example 1: Let's use the most efficient market in the world, the US Stock Market, as an example first. When a CEO announces that they will be issuing X amount of new shares to the public at Y time (dilution event), the market does not wait until the shares physically hit the market to react. The market (rightfully) adjusts when it is known X amount of shares will be hitting the market at Y point in time. Example 2: If Jeff from Hyperliquid announced today that they are airdropping the entirety of their 38% community rewards allocation to holders 9/1/25, would I wait until it happens to update my model & outlook for the HYPE token? Of course not. The outlook changes when the new information is announced to the public. Example 3: Inflation/unlock schedules need to be taken into account before the tokens actually hit the market. LINK adds 7% of its total supply to the market every year via inflation ($1.68B at current prices!). If I am an investor and I do not take that into account, the new Chainlink Reserve would be wildly bullish. But it's not because buybacks will be met with many multiples of dilution along the way. Any valuation that does not account for upcoming dilution is misleading.
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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