The market enters a "sensitive period": Ether must defend 3850, and the main line of the copycat emerges
The recent market has been increasingly challenging. Ethereum has already retraced to the EMA15 weekly support level (around 3850) , while the 120-day moving average (often considered the bull-bear line) is now around 3540. I've made up a lot of ground during this pullback. If ETH's weekly chart breaks below 3850 before 8 a.m. next Monday, I'll completely change my mindset.
The overall strategy remains unchanged: only long and no short, and continue to position for the Fed's interest rate cuts and alt-ETFs.
Remember: opportunities come from falling, and risks come from rising.
📉 ETH's trend is critical, and BTC is under increasing pressure
From a technical perspective, if the ether monthly line cannot be closed at the end of the month, the short-term rhythm will be much more complicated. The market energy is indeed rising, but there are still not many big opportunities.
As for Bitcoin, once it falls below 110,000 , those who don’t know how to trade should not try to hold on. Keeping the principal is more important than anything else.
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- If BTC fails to rebound above 111,500 , it will have to rely on support from $100,000 .
- If ETH cannot hold steady at 4250 , it may bottom out at 3500 .
🪙 Shanzhai: Waiting for BTC ETH to intervene, the main plot has emerged
The current rhythm of Altcoin is also very obvious: #UNI and #DOGE have both reached the strong support area, but they have to wait for the "plug-in" of BTC and Ethereum to end before taking any action.
Next, Sister Miao selected two main lines:
- DEX track: The pattern is basically determined;
- Stable track: You can focus on exploring the "second, third, and fourth dragons", among which the leader is undoubtedly #XPL.
In terms of short-term strategies, I prefer those currencies with long down cycles because they tend to lead the rebound. For example , $ BONK and #PENGU have been adjusting over the past two months and are likely to lead the rally again.
In addition, some coins that have just plummeted may also see a short-term rebound, such as $ FORM and WLFI , but this rebound does not mean a reversal of the trend. It is best to see whether they can stabilize the volatility before considering whether to intervene.
It is not ruled out that large-cap meme coins will once again become the market focus in the second half of Q4. This is because this round is led by value coins and fundamental coins, while the meme sector has been resting since the surge in May. When they are rotated to these sectors, the market may have a new surge.
🪙 Track Outlook: RWA has not started to pick up momentum, SUI is at a critical juncture
In the RWA track, #ONDO is still the strongest in terms of capital scale and market share , but its price has not increased. I think the main reason is that the trend of this track has not really arrived yet.
Also worth noting is #SUI , which has been consolidating in a range for almost half a year. Whichever side releases first could lead to a major breakthrough . Hold on to the spot!
✅ To summarize:
- The key support for ETH is 3850, and if it falls below, it will turn to short selling;
- If BTC cannot hold 111,500, it will have to guard against the 100,000 mark;
- The main trend of altcoins is DEX and Stable, and Meme may re-emerge in the fourth quarter;
- RWA has not picked up momentum yet, and SUI deserves special attention.
At this stage, we should keep our emotions stable, our positions light, and our plans firm .
Don't be led by market fluctuations. As long as you have the green mountains, you will never run out of firewood.
The market moves in waves, and it’s easy to get lost if you go it alone.
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