September has drawn to a close in the blink of an eye, and October is just around the corner. This week's BTC price has been primarily down, with the largest weekly drop reaching nearly 6%. Altcoins, as usual, are suffering. Interestingly, the funds that buy the dips at$108.5K in early September, mentioned in the previous weekly report, have not yet sold off.
(Previous: Bitcoin is still under pressure from 116-119K, but it seems that some funds are quietly operating (Mr. Berg's Chain Weekly Report #43)
(Background: Detailed explanation of on-chain data: Talking about Glassnode’s top-and-bottom detector and obvious flaws )
1) URPD
As mentioned in last week’s weekly report (see the quote below), there was a huge accumulation of 610,000 chips at 117K, and when last week’s weekly report was released, the price just touched the maximum accumulation resistance area of chips on the chain.
Subsequently, fluctuations occurred as expected, and in a "downward" manner. The huge accumulation of chips at 117K indeed had a suppressive effect on the price.
Currently, the single huge volume column at 117 K has an accumulated volume of 540,000 coins, which has decreased slightly with the decline this week; and currently, a second single huge volume column has appeared at the position of 108 K, and its accumulated volume is the same as 117 K, which is also 540,000 coins.
2) STH-RP
For details on the STH-RP (average cost of short-term holders) analysis method, please see this article .
The current STH-RP is approximately 111,646, which is close to the current price.
I mentioned this in last week's weekly report (the following are the original words):
" Since BTC hit the STH-RP level and rebounded three weeks ago, there hasn't been a single large green candlestick pattern on the daily chart. Instead, the price has risen in small, incremental steps. This makes it difficult to effectively distance the price from the STH-RP level. Therefore, if the rebound proves weak, we may soon face another STH-RP defense battle. "
Now my view has been confirmed, and after the rebound is confirmed, the Lower High on the technical chart has been confirmed.
Therefore, although the current decline is less than 1%, I am bearish on the outcome of the second round of STH-RP defense battle .
3) CBD Heatmap
The CBD heat map has three dimensions: time, price, and number of chips;
Unlike the URPD chart, the CBD Heatmap uses " address basis " as the statistical basis.
After we continued to track the CBD heat map for several weeks, the price finally touched the 117K trapped ghost area that we have been paying attention to for a long time last week.
Although some funds tried to buy in the 115~116K area last week, their buying power was ultimately insufficient, causing BTC to stay briefly near 117K before being affected by the resistance zone and falling this week.
Interestingly, I started sharing a phenomenon with you in my weekly report a month ago :
" There is capital buying the buy the dips in the area around 108,500 ."
Friends who read the weekly report should know that I share their latest situation every week. They first buy the dips when BTC last touched STH-RP, and have not sold since then, but have not increased their positions either.
This week's decline has actually touched their opening cost, which is around 108~109K. This may be a potential support level in the short term. However, once they start selling at a loss or the external selling force is too strong,
In fact, it is entirely possible to directly break through their position cost area .
After all, combined with the situation of the technical line chart, 107 K is a liquidity gathering area. Therefore, the most ideal scenario for the bulls is to do a stop hunt on 107 K, rebound quickly after the pin, and the rebound process is accompanied by strong taker buys. However, what the actual situation will be, we still have to wait until it breaks out to know the answer.
4) Conclusion
Key points:
- URPD: A single giant column appears at 108 K, the same as at 117 K.
- STH-RP: Currently around 111.6 K, now below the state, but close to the current price
- CBD Heatmap: Closely monitor whether the 108~109K large capital position cost area has been broken
The above is the 44th issue of the Chain Weekly Report. I hope it is helpful to you. I wish you all a happy weekend!
