The market situation this week can be described in one word - "tragic".
BTC(BTC) has not been stable in the past few days. There is no stop-loss signal on the daily chart, and the 4-hour chart is only repeatedly testing the support level of 108,000. It has not given a clear direction, so everyone should be cautious.
Ethereum (ETH) is relatively strong. After breaking through the trend line, it formed a Double Botto. The volume and shape are strengthening. This wave of short-term volatility is expected to end and usher in a continued bullish market.
The altcoins basically follow the overall market, and only a few hot coins have a market, such as #XPL , which has been the most popular in the past two days and has been rising . The market attention is also focused on the perpetual and stablecoin tracks, and other sectors are relatively sluggish.
With the market plummeting, counterfeiters offering sacrifices to the gods, and waves of margin calls, many are asking the same question: Is this a sign that the bull market has peaked, or is it a deliberate trap created by major investors? Should they lock in their profits or seize the opportunity to buy the dips at the bottom?
I would like to talk about my understanding of this market trend and my judgment for the next two months from a more "human" perspective.
📉 A margin call is not the end of a bull market, but a "compulsory course" for the main players to clear the market.
This round of plunge didn't really have any particular benefits; it was just a standard explosion of joy and high poles. Over the previous two weeks, copycat sentiment was overheated, and everyone started to act impulsively and aggressively. As a result, the main players took advantage of the situation and stepped on the market, instantly liquidating it and causing heavy losses for the investors.
But this step cannot be avoided in almost every bull market: because only when the lever is cleared and the car is lighter, the market will have the strength to continue running.
Only by looking at the market from the perspective of the main force can we understand the next trend
Remember this fundamental: only a few people make money. And most of these people are market leaders. They won't easily tell you the bull market is over. Instead, they'll try to convince you that "the market is still going strong," or even that "even crazier things are yet to come."
Therefore, this week's big liquidation is likely just the "first step" of the main shipment:
- Either it is a staged market crash, selling while cleaning up;
- Either the bull market is approaching its peak and the short-selling pattern has been completed.
But I think the second possibility is too early .
As we all know, October and November are traditionally golden months. Going directly into a bear market during this period would be too costly and risky.
A more reasonable scenario is: wash-out - despair - another wave of new highs, and then the real top is reached.
Panic ≠ Peak, Despair is the starting point of opportunity
The current market sentiment is "fear + disappointment" rather than "fanatical + greed".
This suggests the final round of the game isn't over yet. The major players may need to let the market despair for a while before rapidly pulling it back up to new highs. When retail investors become excited again and shout "bull market is coming," that's when the major players will truly sell off.
Idea: Buy low on Fenpi and keep a hand to catch the last "fish tail"
If you have reduced your position or are short, you can now consider gradually building a position.
- BTC at 108,000 and 106,000 , and Ethereum at 3,700 are all good low-buy positions in batches;
- Altcoin: Mainstream coins (such as SOL, SUI, BNB...) are listed on the left, followed by altcoins (such as PENGU, ONDO, PEPE, RAY...) on the right.
Remember: this wave of plunge is not the end of the bull market, but another "selection competition" created by the main force.
Only those who can hold on to the end are qualified to eat the last bite of meat in the bull market. Don't be swayed by emotions, because panic is often the time when opportunities are greatest.
That’s all for now! If you’re still unsure about your direction in the crypto, why not join me in making a plan? I’ll wait for you to come. Otherwise, in the next wave of the market, you may be the one standing on the other side again! Communicate + V: Mixm5688 or Penguin ID (QQ): 3806326575
