The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut early this morning, but the crypto fell instead of rising?
Many people are confused, but the root cause of this decline is not interest rates, but a mismatch between market sentiment and funding expectations . Powell's dovish yet vague remarks, the fact that balance sheet reduction will only stop in December, and the fact that the US government has not yet returned to normal operations—all these factors create negative sentiment in the short term.
But don't be scared. The interest rate cut and the halt in quantitative tightening are long-term positive factors . It's just that the major players are taking the opportunity to shake out weak hands and create panic.
Market Analysis: Major players are shaking out weak hands; technical indicators haven't collapsed.
From a technical perspective, there are no signs of a major drop in BTC .
The daily chart shows a clear downward wick; the key support level to watch is 1105. If the price can hold above the 112-116 range today, tomorrow's monthly close could confirm stabilization. If it holds, a rebound is likely.
#ETH is still following its familiar pattern. Last time it traded sideways for 60 days, people were saying it had topped out, but it went straight to 3800; this time it's been sideways for 78 days, and people are saying a bear market is coming. The fluctuations are just the major players rebalancing their positions, not a sign of a crash.
In the short term, pay attention to the resistance at 4030, with a target of 4400-4600. A break above 4600 could open up new upside potential.
December will likely see another interest rate cut, the end of balance sheet reduction, Q4 upgrades, tariff cancellation, and the launch of ETFs...
These are all "slow-burning" positive factors; the market hasn't fully reacted yet. The more people panic now, the lower the probability of a market top .
As for the news of OpenAI's "1 trillion IPO," it's just a firework display of capital sentiment and doesn't affect the main theme of crypto.
My reasons for temporarily liquidating my holdings
Don't get me wrong, I'm not bearish, but rather that there's too much short-term bubble .
- The Nasdaq has risen 60% in six months with almost no pullback.
- Gold prices doubled in two years;
- Bitcoin has increased nearly ninefold in three years, from $15,000 to $126,000;
With such a price increase, it's hard not to get caught in a bubble.
Even more dangerous is that major funds are starting to cool down :
Mantaplanet, the world's second-largest BTC buyer, has not increased its holdings for several weeks; instead, it has been selling coins to save its stock price.
ETH Treasury is also selling ETH to stabilize market capitalization;
Even MicroStrategy couldn't make any more acquisitions, and its financing capabilities declined, which is a huge blow to market confidence.
Cyclical pattern: three years of rise followed by one year of fall
Bitcoin goes through a cycle of four years – three years of gains followed by one year of losses.
This round of price increases has lasted for three years, and it's almost a certainty that a correction cycle will begin in 2025.
The past three bear markets all saw declines of over 70%, so even a 50-60% drop this time would be considered a reasonable correction. Waiting until then to start dollar-cost averaging will be the real opportunity to buy at the bottom. The Fed's rate cut, the meeting between the Chinese and US leaders, and the launch of the SOL spot ETF are all positive factors that the market had already anticipated.
Once the positive news is implemented, funds will choose to take profits and leave the market .
Just like the ETH ETF experienced a continuous decline after its launch, the SOL ETF may now repeat that scenario.
🧭 Conclusion: Don't be greedy, wait for the next signal.
The current market conditions are not suitable for heavily betting on the direction. There may be short-term rebounds, but no trend reversal. Just holding onto profits is good enough; those trying to grab the last bite often end up losing out.
I've chosen to clear my positions this time and wait for the next cycle. The market is never short of opportunities; what it lacks are positions that can survive.
The opportunity will be gone in the blink of an eye, everyone gather quickly!
Don't let hesitation delay your chance to make money, and don't get burned by worthless cryptocurrencies. Join Sister Miao and let's ride this bull market together!
Contact me via WeChat: Mixm5688
