- Technical indicators present conflicting signals : a MACD death cross and narrowing Bollinger Bands suggest a need to observe the breakout direction from the 3709-3965 range.
- On-chain data warns : A whale transaction of nearly $100 million may indicate a short-term wave of profit-taking.
- Derivatives Market Betting : 99% of New High Expectations in the Options Market Reflect Extreme Optimism
ETH Price Prediction
Ethereum Technical Analysis: Short-Term Pullback Pressure and Long-Term Trend Outlook
BTCC financial analyst Olivia points out that the current ETH price (3906.91 USDT) has fallen below the 20-day moving average (3965.97), and the MACD histogram shows a negative value of -64.41, indicating weak short-term momentum. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing (upper band 4222.63/lower band 3709.31), and the price fell back after touching the middle band, indicating downward pressure from the technical indicators. If the support level of 3709 can hold, there is still a possibility of testing the historical high in the medium term.
Market Sentiment Divergence: The Interplay Between Whale Movements and Derivatives Signals
Olivia's analysis suggests that while POL ymarket predicts a 99% probability of ETH reaching a new high, on-chain data shows unusual activity from whale: Binance transferred $56 million worth of ETH to anonymous wallets, and ETHZilla sold $40 million worth of shares as part of a share buyback program. This reflects large investors adjusting their positions before the price surge, which could exacerbate short-term volatility. It is recommended to pay attention to whether the key moving average of $3965 can be re-established.
Key factors affecting ETH price
Polymarket predicts a 99% probability that Ethereum will reach a new all-time high before 2026.
Prediction market Polymarket has significantly increased its estimate of the probability that Ethereum (ETH) will reach a new all-time high before 2026 to 99%, reflecting a near-unanimous bullish sentiment among traders. The platform is built on Polygon and aggregates crowd-based predictions of real-world events using the USDC stablecoin.
ETH's current price is near $4,000, consistent with this surge in confidence, up from the 50-95% probability in August 2025. Market catalysts include anticipated institutional inflows from spot Ethereum ETFs and broader cryptocurrency market momentum, despite recent ETF outflows recorded by Farside Investors.
As the world's largest decentralized prediction platform, Polymarket's odds represent traders' collective expectations, not fundamental analysis . A 1% residual skepticism leaves minimal room for bearish rebuttal to this high-risk price prediction.
Binance transferred $56.6 million worth of Ethereum to an unknown wallet.
Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange , recently transferred 13,744 ETH to an undisclosed wallet address. According to Whale Alert monitoring data, this transaction, worth approximately $56.61 million, occurred at 05:00 UTC on October 28th.
Such large transfers typically indicate institutional accumulation of positions or preparation for staking, lending, or over-the-counter (OTC) deals. While the transparency of the Ethereum blockchain allows for real-time tracking of transactions, the ultimate purpose remains a matter of market speculation without disclosure of the counterparty.
ETHZilla sells $40 million worth of Ethereum shares, implements treasury share buyback program, and initiates market protection mechanisms.
Ethereum reserve company ETHZilla (formerly 180 Life Sciences Corp.) has sold approximately $40 million worth of Ethereum to repurchase its own stock . This move is part of a $250 million treasury stock protection plan approved by the company's board of directors in August.
The company's stock price surged 14.5% on Monday and rose another 9% to $22.50 in after-hours trading. Nevertheless, the stock price remains well below the peak of $107 when ETH Zilla first announced its Ethereum reserve strategy.
Since October 24, Zilla has used proceeds from the sale of Ethereum to repurchase 600,000 shares of its common stock for $12 million. The company confirmed that it will continue to sell ETH and repurchase shares until the discount between the share price and net asset value returns to a normal level.
Chairman McAndre W. Rudisill emphasized that the stock is trading at a "significant discount" relative to the company's net worth of $400 million in Ethereum holdings. It's worth noting that Peter Thiel's Founders Fund acquired a 7.5% stake in ETHZilla in August.
Is ETH a good investment right now?
According to the BTCC data dashboard, ETH currently exhibits characteristics of high risk and high return :
| index | Numerical | Implicit signals |
|---|---|---|
| Price/20-day moving average | 3906.91/3965.97 | Short-term trend weakens |
| MACD histogram | -64.41 | Momentum weakened but did not enter oversold territory. |
| Bollinger Bands Position | Approaching the lower rail | The probability of a rebound has risen to 63%. |
Olivia suggests a phased entry strategy : if the price holds above the 3700 support level, a 30% position can be established, increasing to 50% upon a breakout above the 20-day moving average. Close attention should be paid to the increased volatility risk around the November derivatives expiration date.
