The sharp decline in the cryptocurrency market following Jerome Powell's hawkish statements significantly changed expectations on the prediction market Polymarket.
Investors believe that downward movements will continue in the short term, especially in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Investors on Polymarket are unanimous in their view that Bitcoin will close October below $108,000.
- The $106,000–$108,000 range stands out as the highest probability with a 31% probability.
- This is followed by the $108,000–$110,000 (25%) and $104,000–$106,000 (18%) ranges.
- The total probability of over $110,000 remains only around 17%.
- Furthermore, the probability of Bitcoin falling below $100,000 before 2026 is priced at 65%.
On the Ethereum side, the majority of market participants think that ETH will continue its decline between October 27 and November 2.
- The most dominant scenario has an 81% probability of a price drop to $3,700.
- The total of predictions below $3,800 exceeds 95%.
- Prices over $4,000 are limited to 1–3%.
The expectation of a decline is also clearly seen in the predictions titled “What price range will XRP be in between October 27 and November 2?”
- The strongest scenario carries an 83% probability of a price below $2.40.
- Below $2.50 there is a 50% chance, above $2.70 there is only a 12% chance.
*This is not investment advice.
