Orange's Evening Commentary 10:31 There's been so much FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) about crypto lately online, which I think is completely unnecessary. People say the crypto market lacks innovation and is just a bunch of rabble talking nonsense. Retail investors only care about who's investing, who's going to list on Binance, or all sorts of hype and misinformation about cryptocurrencies, shill and ripping people off. Meanwhile, US stock market players seem sophisticated and high-class. Various concepts like AI, robots, space exploration, self-driving cars, and immortality are used to contrast the stock market as value investing with the cryptocurrency market as a game of buying the dip. While these are indeed facts—truly valuable projects in the crypto are probably less than one in ten thousand—hasn't that been the reality of the crypto market for years? Scams and rampant exploitation haven't prevented it from remaining one of the highest-returning risky assets for over a decade, nor has it stopped seasoned investors from making a fortune. Anyone who has weathered two bull and bear market cycles in the cryptocurrency market has undoubtedly achieved returns far exceeding those of stock trading. As an ordinary person, and especially as a Chinese person, your investment choices are inherently limited. The cryptocurrency market remains the easiest path for ordinary people to access global investment opportunities. The returns from the cryptocurrency market over the years have absolutely justified your initial investment decisions. Therefore, there's really no need to denigrate the cryptocurrency market at this time. Think back to each cycle of the cryptocurrency market – didn't it experience several periods of despair? Then, like an unkillable cockroach, it always survived. I believe those who are panicking now share a common concern: insufficient BTC holdings. In reality, BTC hasn't fallen much, not even in the last few days, and even at 10:11, the drop was much milder than previous bull market corrections. Therefore, those holding Bitcoin BTC shouldn't panic at all; this correction is practically imperceptible. The worst off are those with large altcoin positions. Altcoins now seem like bottomless pits, with many hitting new lows after new lows. Actually, resolving the panic is easy: immediately liquidate your altcoins, don't worry about the cost basis, and switch to BTC. A decisive move will ensure a smoother experience afterwards. If you really can't bear to cut your losses, I think the most you can do is… If you can gamble on a rebound, and then switch all your money to BTC after the rebound, as a seasoned investor with a lot of experience holding altcoins for a long time, all I can say is switch early and enjoy the benefits sooner. Then let's talk about altcoins. Although 99% of altcoins are garbage, some projects do perform well in the short term, especially $zec, which hit ATH again today, heading straight for 400 points. My personal analysis suggests several factors contributing to ZEC's strength. First, with institutions' comprehensive reserves of BTC and the improvement of various financial derivatives and tracking tools, BTC's privacy attributes have been greatly reduced. Basically, wallets holding a certain amount of BTC can be accurately identified, which is very disadvantageous for many big players with privacy needs. Therefore, privacy coins have become a supplement to BTC. Second, because of the original leader $xmr XMR's privacy features are so strong, with its mandatory privacy protection, that it has almost become the exclusive trading currency of the Dark Web, leading to regulatory issues. This is why Binance, OKEx, and CB have all delisted XMR. Currently, XMR's liquidity is insufficient, making it difficult for large funds to enter the market. Therefore, ZEC has taken over the funds of privacy enthusiasts. Additionally, Arthur, a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency market, has been strongly shill ZEC to $10,000, suggesting a potential upside of 30x. Although Arthur sometimes changes his direction drastically, his recommendations, whether for altcoins or not, have generally performed well. His ability to identify altcoins is quite accurate, which is commendable. In short, the rise of ZEC has also boosted the entire privacy sector. While only a few may ultimately succeed, it represents a sector with genuine real-world demand. Regarding X402, although it cooled down quite quickly—$payai dropped to only $30m and $ping to $20m—many who bought in a few days ago were burned. However, this sector is a collaborative effort between industry giants and those outside the blockchain space. It's a protocol used by giants like Google and PayPal outside the blockchain and Coinbase and the Ethereum Foundation inside. Therefore, this sector likely has more to offer. Furthermore, X402 can facilitate transactions between AI agents. Imagine if various agents opened accounts, issued tokens, traded, and made markets on-chain in the future, and even Agent P emerged. The number of transactions could far exceed current human-driven transactions, potentially by several orders of magnitude. X402 might play the role previously seen in AMM DEXs and PERP DEXs. The potential is enormous. In the future, tools like AP2 and ERC8004 will emerge to build trust between agents. This might be the culmination of AI and blockchain. Therefore, I believe this sector has a long lifespan. Focus on infrastructure projects that can continuously capture value, such as $virtual Lines like $clanker $hype $uni $link are displayed. Then, regarding the first level, projects launching TGE tokens recently have been in dire straits. Platforms like Kaito and Coinlist have seen tokens fall below their initial offering price. Actually, Legion also had tokens that fell below their initial offering price before, and many projects on Echo died right from the start. Metadao's first project to oversubscribe by more than 100 times... $umbra Recently, several projects have also experienced price drops below their initial offering price. Most of the subsequent projects only managed to stay above the initial price on the opening day, and then likely fell below it the next day. This is the current state of the primary market. The most valuable period for a project is before its IPO, when the price is usually at its peak. After that, it will likely join the downward trend of older altcoins on centralized exchanges. Therefore, I advise those participating in IDOs: if your invested project has launched, cherish the high price on the first day of trading, regardless of whether it's listed on Binance, whether it has fallen below its initial offering price, or how much hype it generated during fundraising. Once it's listed, it automatically becomes a worthless altcoin; don't hold onto it overnight. Today, several large-scale fundraising projects have ended: Fight was oversubscribed 116 times, Megaeth 27.8 times, and the same goes for ZKPass. After the offering, regardless of the multiple, sell immediately. Next, AC's project @flyingtulip_ will be fundraising on @impossiblefi, and this amount requires staking platform tokens. $idia The price of the coin has already taken off. If you buy now, be prepared to be fleeced by IDA first.