Ethereum (ETH) is showing a short-term bearish trend after repeatedly failing to break above key resistance levels. The price remains within a descending channel, and market uncertainty is growing after the failed attempt to break above $4,200 (approximately 5.67 million won).
Currently, Ethereum is barely holding above the 200-day moving average on the daily chart, but a "bearish divergence" is emerging, with low lows and lower highs. The RSI, a technical indicator, has fallen to 42, indicating weakening buying pressure. If the $3,700 (approximately 4.99 million won) support level collapses, the next key demand level is expected to be around $3,400 (approximately 4.59 million won).
The short-term 4-hour chart also shows a sharp decline after being rejected at the $4,200 (approximately 5.67 million won) resistance level. A small rebound followed, but the price is currently attempting a trend recovery near $3,800 (approximately 5.12 million won). The RSI has rebounded from the oversold zone, but a solid recovery has not yet been achieved. Experts predict that if the price fails to break above the $4,000 (approximately 5.4 million won) resistance level, further declines are possible even after short positions are liquidated.
The sentiment in the derivatives market is also negative. Total open interest across all Ethereum exchanges has plummeted from $32 billion (approximately KRW 43.28 trillion) to approximately $22.8 billion (approximately KRW 30.74 trillion) in recent weeks. This suggests widespread forced liquidations, driven by leverage overexposure liquidations and stop-loss-inducing trades (stop hunts). Notably, despite the price rebound, open interest has not recovered significantly, indicating that traders remain cautious.
Ethereum's future direction hinges on whether it breaks below the $3,700 (approximately 4.99 million won) support level or the $4,000 (approximately 5.4 million won) resistance level. A downward breakout could lead to further declines to $3,400 (approximately 4.59 million won), while an upward breakout could trigger a full-scale challenge toward $4,200 (approximately 5.67 million won). The market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting a signal for a new trend reversal.
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