Bitcoin fell in October 2025 due to weak retail demand, cooling network activity and macro pressures, but the probability of a recovery in November is still present thanks to catalysts.
Price fell from $118,000 to near $110,000, RSI below neutral and below EMAs. History favors November, plus rate cut signals, end of QT and new ETF hopes could improve market sentiment.
- October 2025, BTC drops from 118,000 to near $110,000; RSI below neutral, below EMA shows weakening momentum.
- Derivative tilted to sell: Open Interest up nearly 10% to $8.65 billion as CVD declines; on-chain active addresses drop 26.1%, transaction fees plummet.
- November has a positive history: median 8.81% (CoinGlass). CME FedWatch shows probability of December rate cut over 60%, QT expected to end December 1, new ETF could be catalyst.
Bitcoin Weakens in October on Macro Pressures and Weak Retail Demand
Bitcoin lost momentum by the end of October 2025, falling from around $118,000 to near $110,000; mid-month red candles with increased volume indicate profit-taking.
RSI below neutral and price below key EMAs confirms trend exhaustion. Macro pressures: December rate cut expectations fade, US stocks outperform, China maintains crypto restrictions, and DAT concerns in Washington undermine the risk narrative.
In that context, reduced risk appetite leads to lower short-term speculative demand for BTC , especially from retail investors who are sensitive to macro fluctuations.
November is typically positive for Bitcoin according to historical data
CoinGlass data shows that November has been one of BTC 's strongest months with a median return of 8.81% since 2013; 2020, 2021, and 2023 all recorded double-digit gains.
Seasonal factors often support sentiment, especially when accompanied by improved liquidation. However, history does not guarantee the future; Order Book depth, yield volatility, and policy news flow can still skew short-term price trajectories.
Therefore, investors should closely monitor data milestones, ETF flows, and bond market reactions to confirm momentum.
Macro catalysts are shaping up for a recovery scenario
CME FedWatch notes that the probability of a Fed rate cut in December exceeds 60%, which combined with the expected end of quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1 could improve liquidation and risk appetite.
Trade tensions between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping have eased, reducing geopolitical uncertainty. At the same time, the possibility of new ETF approvals remains on the horizon, contributing to rising expectations for risky assets.
However, the market remains sensitive to inflation and labor data. Pricing in expectations of easing requires confirmation from actual data to avoid “buying the rumor, selling the news”.
“We will be cautious in deciding whether to tighten further or keep rates unchanged and wait for more data.”
– Jerome H. Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Speech at Jackson Hole, August 25, 2023, source: Federal Reserve
Derivative data shows retail investors are leaning towards short positions.
Open Interest increased by nearly 10% in 7 days, from $7.95 billion to $8.65 billion as BTC traded around $110,000, while CVD dropped sharply, which usually implies newly opened Short positions rather than Longing.
The combination of rising OI and falling CVD reflects expectations of further correction from retail investors. When leverage is biased towards selling, the risk of a two-way squeeze increases, especially around thinly liquidation technical support zones.
Risk management should be prioritized: reduce leverage, set disciplined stops and monitor funding rates, basis futures to identify position deviations.
Weak on-chain activity prolongs accumulation cycle
Active addresses dropped from 1.18 million (11/2024) to 872,000 (10/30), or -26.1%. Transaction fees fell from $8.44 to $0.56, indicating less filled blocks and reduced retail user activity.
Thin on-chain liquidation often makes bull cycles need more time to accumulate and confirm. When fees are low, mempool activity is quiet, mass FOMO signals weaken, making bull runs need stronger catalysts.
As on-chain indicators recover along with ETF Capital or macro improvement, the probability of a new sustainable trend forming increases.
The summary data picture reinforces the cautious argument
Price, Derivative , and on-chain indicators are consistent with a defensive market stance in the short term, but November has a window of opportunity if macro catalysts are confirmed.
| Index | Recent milestones | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| BTC Price | Decrease from ~118,000 to nearly 110,000 USD (end of October 2025) | Mid-month profit taking, RSI below neutral, below EMA |
| Open Interest | 7.95 → 8.65 billion USD (7 days) | OI increases with CVD decreases, leaning towards new Short |
| Operating address | 1.18 million → 872,000 (as of October 30) | -26.1%, reflecting cooling retail demand |
| Transaction fees | 8.44 → 0.56 USD | Poor block filling, slow network performance |
| November crop | Median 8.81% (since 2013, CoinGlass) | Increase the probability of recovery if the macro is favorable |
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Bitcoin fall in October 2025?
Retail demand is down, network activity is slowing, and macro pressures are increasing. Price fell from ~118,000 to near $110,000, RSI is below neutral and below EMAs, indicating short-term weakness.
Is November Usually Positive for Bitcoin?
Yes. CoinGlass has recorded a median return of 8.81% for November since 2013; 2020, 2021, 2023 have all seen double digit gains. However, history does not guarantee the future, watch for macro catalysts.
What is the impact of the Fed rate cut probability?
CME FedWatch shows the probability of a December cut surpassing 60%, which could support risk appetite, lower the cost of Capital and improve asset valuations like Bitcoin if economic data supports it.
Open Interest increases but CVD decreases, what does it imply?
Usually implies newly opened Short positions overwhelming Longing positions. This reflects defensive sentiment, correction expectations and increased squeeze risk as prices hit thin liquidation areas.
What does the sharp drop in transaction fees mean?
The drop in fees from $8.44 to $0.56 reflects poor block fill, slow on-chain activity, and the absence of retail FOMO. Rallies may therefore be slower to mature.
