Bitcoin price fell to $100,800, its lowest in four months, leaving experts skeptical about its ability to reach its target of $125,000 before the end of 2025.
Bitcoin is showing clear signs of weakness, raising doubts about optimistic forecasts for the end of 2025. Houston Morgan, an analyst at ShapeShift, said he does not expect the digital asset to surpass $125,000 this year, down from its historic peak of $126,000 on October 4. Morgan said Bitcoin needs to break away from its current correlation with US President Donald Trump's announcements to enter a new growth cycle.
Bitcoin's sell-off intensified as BTC prices plummeted to a four-month low of $100,800. Bitfinex analysts said the continued distribution from long-term investors continues to exert structural pressure on the market. They warned that this sustained net withdrawal is consistent with broader signs of weakness, as long-term investors continue to sell amid falling demand.
Market sentiment turns to extreme fear
According to Bitfinex experts, if Bitcoin does not quickly recover above $116,000, the price could continue to fall as 2025 comes to a close. They emphasize that if the price does not recover clearly in this area, time will become a major obstacle for buyers because prolonged stagnation in history often erodes market sentiment and increases the risk of forced selling.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a measure of digital asset market sentiment, has halved to 21/100, reflecting extreme fear across the market. The current weakness is in sharp contrast to the explosive bullish predictions just weeks ago, when many Bitcoin proponents still believed the asset could reach $250,000 before the end of the year.
Speaking on the Bankless podcast earlier in October, BitMine president Tom Lee and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes both reiterated their belief that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 to $250,000 by the end of the year. However, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said the stars would have to align for Bitcoin to reach that price.
Experts are Chia on the outlook for 2026. Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan predicts 2026 will be a bull year for Bitcoin, while financial analyst Andrew Lokenauth believes 2026 will likely be a bear market similar to previous mid-cycle years. Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently warned that Bitcoin could fall to the low $60,000s if the downtrend continues.
