After falling below its 365-day Medium price, Bitcoin faces uncertainty as analysts debate whether this is a signal for an impending bear market or just a short-term correction.
Bitcoin fell below $99,000 on Tuesday, breaking a key macro indicator and reigniting debate about the state of the market.
Bitcoin has fallen below its 365-day moving Medium , according to Julio Moreno, head of research at data analytics platform CryptoQuant.
“This was the final confirmation signal for the start of the 2022 bear market,” Moreno wrote on X, adding: “Price needs to quickly break back above this line.”
Bitcoin briefly dipped below $99,000 on Tuesday, hitting a multi-month low of around $98,900, according to data from Coinbase. Prices have since recovered slightly, with Bitcoin trading around $101,800 at press time.
Is this a big warning sign?
The 365-day MA is a technical indicator that tracks the Medium price of BTC over a year, to determine the trend direction of the market.
According to market observers, this indicator is one of the most important moving Medium for assessing Bitcoin sentiment. When the BTC price falls below this line, it is often XEM as a strong bearish signal.
This is not the first time Bitcoin has fallen below the 365 MA this year. According to data Chia by analyst Decode, BTC price had previously dipped below this line in April.
"Normal cleansing cycle"
Tuesday’s sharp drop “officially marked a technical bear market,” as BTC prices fell more than 20% from their all-time high above $126,000 in early October, according to analyst Andri Fauzan Adziima from Bitrue.
“However, this is only the fourth correction in the 2025 Bull run cycle – a routine purge, not the start of a long winter,” Adziima said, pointing to historical data showing that 20% declines in bull markets typically lead to a 40% recovery within 60 days.
Decision threshold: 100,000 USD
“For BTC to truly enter a bear market, we believe the $100,000 level must be completely broken,” Chia Tom Cohen, head of investment and trading at Algoz Technology.
“With the $100,000 line still in place, the likelihood that we are headed for a Santa Claus rally remains very clear,” Cohen said, adding:
“This will of course depend a lot on macro developments, what President Trump is prepared to do in the coming weeks, and especially the US Interest Rate Decision in December.”
