JPMorgan says Bitcoin is 67% undervalued compared to gold when adjusted for volatility, opening up significant growth potential despite market pessimism.
In the context of the crypto asset market going through a sharp correction, JPMorgan gave a contrasting opinion when saying that Bitcoin has an attractive valuation compared to gold. According to a report published on Wednesday, analysts of the largest financial group in the US forecast a significant increase for Bitcoin in the coming months, based on a comparative analysis of the risks between these two assets.
JPMorgan's analysis shows that the increase in gold price volatility during the record rally in October has made the precious metal riskier, while Bitcoin has become more attractive to investors. The volatility ratio between Bitcoin and gold is currently at 1.8, meaning Bitcoin is 1.8 times riskier than gold. Based on this ratio, JPMorgan calculates that with its current market Capital of $2.1 trillion, Bitcoin would need to increase by about 67% to reach parity with gold, which would translate into a theoretical price of about $170,000 per BTC.
The report highlights this mechanical math that suggests Bitcoin has significant growth potential over the next six to 12 months, a remarkably optimistic forecast given the current market climate.
Contrary to market trends
JPMorgan's forecast comes at a time when many institutional investors and market experts are lowering their expectations for Bitcoin. After BTC fell below $100,000 on Tuesday, marking the first time in four months that it broke this important psychological support level, market sentiment has turned more cautious.
Many analysts now believe that Bitcoin is unlikely to recover to $125,000 before the end of 2025, due to pressure from global trade policies, the October 10 market crash that caused the largest 24-hour liquidation in history, and Capital diverted to other investment opportunities.
Typical of this bearish trend, investment firm Galaxy on Wednesday sharply revised down its 2025 Bitcoin price forecast from $185,000 to $120,000. Galaxy pointed out that large investors sold more than 400,000 BTC in October, while institutional investors are shifting to other sectors.
Alex Thorn, global head of research at Galaxy, said Bitcoin has entered a mature era where institutional adoption, passive Capital flows and low volatility become dominant factors.
Thorn also noted that the emergence of ETFs has absorbed much of the market liquidation , making the future growth of Bitcoin likely to be slower than in previous cycles. The divergence of views among major financial institutions reflects the complexity of the current crypto-asset market, where macro factors, institutional Capital flows, and technical dynamics are acting in different directions.
