Although XRP is experiencing a shorter-term bullish sentiment, long-term technical indicators suggest the asset may be entering a new bear cycle.
This possible bear cycle follows more than five years of trading within a long-term upward channel that began after the March 9, 2020 COVID flash crash, according to insights from TradingShot shared in a TradingView post on November 7.
The analyst highlighted key technical indicators confirming this shift. Notably, XRP recently broke below the 50-week moving average (MA), a critical support line that has historically marked trend continuation or reversal points.
Last month’s flash crash briefly touched the 100-week moving average before recovering, mirroring price behavior observed in previous bear cycles.
At the same time, XRP’s July 14, 2025 all-time high coincided with the 2.5 Fibonacci extension level, matching the previous cycle’s peak from April 2021.
Similar weekly RSI patterns and the recent 1W MA50 breach strongly suggest a bearish phase is underway. Historical precedent indicates that such patterns often lead to sharp downward moves.
XRP next price levels to watch
Now, according to TradingShot, XRP could target the $0.90 level, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the previous bear cycle and the 1M MA100. A potential entry point for long positions may emerge when the weekly RSI approaches oversold territory below 30, signaling a possible bottom.
Bearish sentiment is further supported by whale transactions signaling possible large-scale selling. On-chain data tracked by Whale Alert indicates that over the past 24 hours, more than 190 million XRP, worth roughly $448 million, moved between Gemini and unknown wallets.
Such large transfers often signal potential market activity, fueling speculation that XRP’s price could see short-term volatility as traders react to institutional positioning.
This bearish sentiment comes even as Ripple continues to make notable deals. In this case, Ripple has announced a $500 million strategic investment at a $40 billion valuation, backed by top institutional investors including Citadel, Fortress, and Pantera Capital. The funding follows a record year and a $1 billion tender offer, with Ripple also repurchasing over 25% of its shares.
XRP price analysis
By press time, XRP was trading at $2.31, up over 4% in the past 24 hours, though it has plunged over 7% in the past week.
XRP’s current price remains well below both the 50-day SMA ($2.65) and 200-day SMA ($2.65), confirming strong bearish momentum. The token is in a clear downtrend, having lost support from these key moving averages.
Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI at 43.51 is neutral, neither oversold nor overbought, indicating no immediate exhaustion in selling pressure but also no strong bullish reversal signal yet.
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