On November 17th, Chloe, a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, pointed out in her latest analysis that with the end of the US government shutdown, a number of delayed economic data will be released in quick succession, raising market concerns that this will weaken the basis for a December rate cut. Several Federal Reserve voting members have also signaled a "wait-and-see" approach, significantly cooling expectations for a rate cut. Against the backdrop of interest rate reassessment and tightening liquidity, risk appetite for crypto assets continues to decline.
Bitcoin recently fell to $95,885, and its overall market capitalization has retreated by more than $1 trillion since October. HTX Research stated that high real interest rates, near-exhaustion of reverse repurchase agreements, and high levels of Treasury cash have kept liquidity conditions tight. Options data shows that investors are increasing defensive positions. On Deribit, there is significant open interest in high-level put options, with the largest resistance level around $104,000, and a put/call ratio of 0.61. Long-term holders have also sold over 810,000 Bitcoins during the pullback.
HTX DeepThink believes that future speeches by Federal Reserve officials and the FOMC minutes will dominate expectations. In the short term, influenced by weakening expectations of interest rate cuts and tight liquidity, Bitcoin may maintain a range of $95,000 to $100,000; the medium- to long-term trend will still depend on fiscal spending, regulatory progress, and liquidity release.
