This cycle is a typical long-term, slow bull market : there are rallies every year, and each major correction is spaced out by about six months. Based on the rhythm of previous cycles, I am more inclined to believe:
- BTC will continue to bottom out
- It will fluctuate around 90,000 for 1-2 months.
- The true bottom of the cycle is most likely around 88,000.
- The market will officially bottom out and start rising in Q1 next year.
- Q2 may see a major price surge, and BTC breaking through $150,000 is not a dream.
So, are you thinking of buy the dips now? Don't panic, the opportunity hasn't arrived yet.
BTC: Bears have gained the upper hand; any rebounds are weak.
The technical outlook for BTC can be summed up in four words: "weakening across the board".
- A large bearish candlestick on the weekly chart with high volume indicates strong selling pressure.
- MA7/14/30/90 bearish alignment
- Daily rebounds are all accompanied by decreasing volume.
- No long lower shadow, no engulfing pattern, no morning star – there are no real buying pressures.
- MACD widening gap indicates strong bearish momentum.
The conclusion is simple: all the current rallies are just short covering, not a bullish offensive.
short term:
- Resistance level: 96-97K
- Support levels below: 94-93K
- If it falls below 91.5K , there will be another wave of accelerated selling.
ETH: Weaker than BTC, its structure has broken down.
Ethereum's performance can be summed up in one sentence: "BTC is weak, but ETH is even weaker."
- Three consecutive large bearish candlesticks on the weekly chart
- The key MA90 level has been breached.
- The next support level is at 2800-2400.
- Trading volume showed a pattern of "rebound with decreasing volume + decline with increasing volume".
- The MACD is deeply below the zero line and shows no signs of a golden cross.
- There are no significant bottoming patterns on the daily chart.
short term:
- Resistance levels: 3200–3250
- Support levels below: 3100–3050 → Further downside target: 2750–2400
Ethereum is currently characterized by: a broken trend, weak rebound, poor support, and low trading volume.
Several popular tokens have been making frequent moves recently.
Regarding ZEC , we have successfully closed our positions at the high point, and the resistance zone remains a strong resistance level for the price. Multiple rebounds have failed to break through, and unless there is a sudden "liquidity grab" surge, the probability of a short-term downward move remains higher.
ANKR:
The price remains firmly within an upward channel on the 4-hour chart. Although momentum is weak and the price is below the 9-day and 50-day moving averages, the lower support level is being firmly held by buying pressure. If the rebound continues, watch for the first resistance around the middle channel and the $0.0094 level; a breakout with significant volume would offer a chance to reach the $0.0105-$0.0110 area. Conversely, a break below the lower channel would invalidate the channel, and chasing the price higher should be approached with caution, awaiting confirmation from increased volume.
GRT:
The price has retraced to a key support zone, a level that has previously saved the market multiple times. Buying pressure is now returning to this area. If the support holds, the rebound target remains the 50-day moving average and the $0.060-$0.062 range. A break below this level would indicate a weakening trend, and without support, the bulls' chances are over.
CRV:
The price is currently moving towards point D of the harmonic structure, gradually approaching the final demand zone. As long as it falls within the expected area, the probability of a reversal will significantly increase. The real opportunity lies in a strong reaction after touching the D zone, such as a price surge, structural reversal, or a surge in trading volume. Patiently waiting for the signal is more important than getting on board prematurely.
The recent decline in counterfeit goods prices is essentially a process of "de-bubbling and reshuffling."
Why such a brutal sell-off? The reason is simple: the Fed turned hawkish, and the entire market was risk-averse; altcoins, with the worst liquidity, naturally became the first to be dumped. With TVL (total liquidity index) falling sharply, market makers withdrawing, and funds using altcoins as a "liquidation channel," volatility was amplified infinitely, which is not surprising.
But don't forget that after each major market shakeout, the leading stocks of the new cycle often emerge from the ruins.
I still maintain my judgment: there's a chance that the counterfeit market will see a decent recovery before the end of the year. This is market inertia and a necessary process for sentiment to recover.
Looking further ahead, the overall direction deserves more attention:
- RWA / Asset Tokenization : The core narrative of the long cycle, with the most stable long-term logic.
- LSD / Restaking : Enhanced by the secure diffusion of the Ethereum ecosystem, with a clear profit model.
- Oracles & AI computing prove : new data layer demand, a sector with low-level potential.
Whoever can take the lead in these three tracks may see a price increase far beyond your imagination.
The opportunity will be gone in the blink of an eye, everyone gather quickly!
Don't let hesitation delay your chance to make money, and don't get burned by worthless cryptocurrencies. Join Sister Miao and let's ride this bull market together!
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