10x Research: Bitcoin Breaks Below Sentimental Heated, But Smart Money Is Looking for Contrarian Opportunities

According to Mars Finance, 10x Research stated in its latest report that despite the increasingly strong narrative of a "Bitcoin bear market," many traders are still holding long positions and are under pressure from the recent decline. The firm points out that the old cyclical logic of "three years of gains followed by one year of losses" is being cited again, but the key is whether a "crowded consensus expectation" has formed, creating an opportunity for contrarian positioning. 10x Research mentions that they turned bearish at the end of October, after which Coinbase's implied volatility significantly declined, exhibiting the typical characteristics of a bear market: "sharp drops and sharp rises coexisting." They emphasize that bear markets are extremely difficult to navigate, but it is precisely because of the extreme volatility that they often create the best strategic opportunities. The report states that Bitcoin is testing its long-term uptrend line, which has historically formed a key bottom each time it touched this line, potentially a short-term or strategic turning point. The key question now is no longer whether the market has entered a bear market, but rather, "Is this a good time to buy on dips, or a turning point where caution is advised?"