On November 22, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rose to 71.3%. Following a dovish tone from several Fed officials today , bets on a December rate cut have intensified again, after the probability had previously fallen below 30%. The probability of keeping rates unchanged in December is 8.2%.
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until January 2026 is 19.2%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 57.1%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 23.7%.
The next two FOMC meetings of the Federal Reserve are scheduled for December 10 and January 28, 2026.
