The recent drop is, frankly, more than just a matter of a "weak cryptocurrency market." For the past few days, everyone blamed BTC for its poor performance, but looking back now, it's clear that it wasn't BTC that was weak; it was a global collapse of risk assets.
Last night saw a market-wide sell-off, with US stocks, gold, A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks all plummeting. The last time such a scenario occurred was during the liquidity crisis of the pandemic. Back then, cash was more valuable than gold, and everything that could be sold was dumped – that's how the crypto's "312" crash came about.
This time, it tastes the same again.
The real tipping point: the collapse of interest rate cut expectations + capital questioning the AI bubble.
This round of global market crash is actually about two things:
1) Expectations for interest rate cuts have completely collapsed.
This is a major blow to all risky assets.
2) AI narratives are put on trial.
Nvidia's strong earnings report failed to drive up stock prices; instead, it became an excuse for institutional investors to exit the market. Short seller Burry even publicly criticized the demand for AI as "ridiculously small."
Once AI is repriced by capital, tech stocks will experience a domino effect:
Nvidia went from aiming for $5 trillion to losing $4 trillion, Microsoft fell to $3.5 trillion, and Apple was dragged down from its pedestal.
On average, each company lost 500 billion, and with the overall level of global risky assets declining, the cryptocurrency market naturally fared even worse.
But don't forget: when risk markets rebound, the cryptocurrency market is always at the forefront.
The biggest culprit behind the cryptocurrency market crash: a double whammy of ETFs and DAT.
BTC ETF saw a $900 million outflow last night. This is a "super-large fund" that can truly influence trends.
This bull market was brought about by the opening of ETFs, so now that ETFs are starting to "pull the plug in the opposite direction," the cryptocurrency market will naturally be shut down.
In comparison, the death spiral of DAT is even more terrifying:
A stock price falling below $1 will result in delisting from the US stock market.
In order to save the company's shell, the only option is to sell cryptocurrency to buy back shares.
The more coins you sell, the lower the price drops → the less the stock price can hold up → so you continue selling coins.
This is a spiral at the textbook level.
Bloody examples have already emerged:
- FGNX : ETH cost price 4000, recently cut losses and exited. BMNR : Cost price 4000, never sold, current total losses exceed 4 billion USD.
If BTC were to halve in value again, its losses would be enough to cover the losses incurred by FTX's collapse.
This bull market was both made and broken by ETFs and DAT.
Even whale are selling: but the underlying logic is "habitual selling."
The mass exodus of whale this time is actually not hard to understand:
- The market's tendency to take profits at the end of a cycle, coupled with increased regulatory scrutiny, exacerbated panic.
What's even more exciting is that the coins belonging to several fraudulent whale have been apprehended:
- Chen Zhi: 127,000 KK; She Zhijiang: 100,000
These messages were amplified to an extreme, pushing the panic to its peak.
The lack of privacy is also a key issue. BTC is now being monitored openly by governments around the world, and hackers no longer dare to leave BTC addresses. This is why ZEC has suddenly become a "privacy filler".
The counterfeit market offered a glimmer of hope: at least there was no further damage.
Although counterfeit goods have fallen in the past few days, they haven't oversold, indicating that:
- The bookmaker also felt the price was low enough, limiting the overall cash-out amount.
This is actually a good sign: as long as BTC stops falling, altcoins will follow suit immediately. I still maintain my previous view: altcoins may still have a decent rally in December (consider short on a rebound).
But remember this: the era of centralized exchanges (CEXs) is coming to an end. In the future, only value-driven coins and projects with real revenue streams will survive bull and bear markets. Don't expect long-term value from other altcoins.
My final opinion
As I write this, BTC has dropped to 82,000 , and 2 billion has been liquidated across the entire network.
In this market situation, I only have two suggestions:
1. Never touch leverage.
The leverage you use today could very well become someone else's base position tomorrow.
2. The only way to buy the dips is through dollar-cost averaging.
Because— the real bottom hasn't appeared yet.
We are currently in a period of systemic risk linkage, and no single-point logic is useful. We must wait for the market to regain liquidity, for ETFs to stop outflows, and for the selling pressure from whale to be released.
Now, every sharp drop feels like: "You thought it had bottomed out? Sorry, it was just an illusion."
The opportunity will be gone in the blink of an eye, everyone gather quickly!
Don't let hesitation delay your chance to make money, and don't get burned by worthless cryptocurrencies. Join Sister Miao and let's ride this bull market together!
Contact me via WeChat: Mixm5688
