According to ChainCatcher, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that valuing DAT using mNAV is incorrect because this valuation method does not consider the lifecycle of a publicly traded company. "Suppose you have a Bitcoin DAT that announces it's closing this afternoon and distributing Bitcoin to investors. Its trading price will be exactly equal to the value of its Bitcoin (mNAV of 1.0)."
Matt Hougan's analysis indicates three main reasons for DAT trading at a discount: insufficient liquidity, high fees, and high risk. Conversely, there's only one reason for a DAT premium (limited to the US): whether it increases the value of each share of cryptocurrency. Most reasons for DAT trading at a discount are deterministic, while most reasons for potential premium trading are uncertain. Therefore, most DAT will trade at a discount, with only a few exceptions where it will trade at a premium.
Over the past six months, DAT prices have generally moved in a similar direction. Looking ahead, price differences are expected to become more pronounced. A few DATs will perform well and command a premium, while many others will perform poorly and be priced at a discount.
