According to a chart released today by Matrixport, as reported by Odaily Odaily, Bitcoin's price action shifted from strong to weak a month ago, followed by a significant pullback that caught many investors off guard. Some investors attributed this decline to selling by early holders (OG), ignoring the substantial changes in portfolio structure, leverage levels, and fund flows since the summer.
In our Matrix on Target report last Friday, we pointed out that with sentiment indicators falling to near-extreme levels, the probability of a short-term corrective rebound was increasing. This rebound has now largely materialized.
However, in our view, this is not enough to indicate the start of a new bull market. A more reasonable interpretation is that the current market remains in a relatively complex trading environment with a weak risk appetite. In such an environment, rebounds tend to be rapid and significant, and these rallies are more of a tactical, short-term trading opportunity, and should not be regarded as the starting point of a new trend.
