Yesterday's sharp rebound certainly caught many people off guard: BTC first retraced to 86,000, then rallied to the daily resistance level of 88-90k; ETH also rallied from 2760, but the momentum was weak, and it hasn't even touched the 3080 resistance level yet. The daily chart shows a small bearish candlestick and a small bullish candlestick, both standing at a "critical turning point".
The key is today— if the daily resistance is broken through, BTC will open up to 98-102k, and ETH could see 3300-3400.
For today's trading, BTC is mainly watching the resistance level at 88-92k. The four-hour chart still shows a rebound structure, with the 90k level as the next key level to watch. Support has moved up from 86k yesterday to the 86500-87000 range.
Bitcoin (2.0) is currently focused on the 3080 resistance level, with support at 2830-2860. Although Bitcoin's follow-up rally has been somewhat weak this time, its structure is actually quite robust—normally, when BTC reaches 92-96, Bitcoin should correspond to 2600-2800; this time, BTC only reached around 80, while Bitcoin has already reached that level. If there is a rebound later, Bitcoin will likely be stronger; those who are already positioning should continue to do so.
What we should be most wary of in the market is not the candlestick chart, but what the major players are doing:
- FORWARD INDUSTRY, the world's largest Solana treasury, has sold 2.9 million Solana tokens on exchanges in the past two days, clearing out half of its holdings.
- Another crypto influencer, Michael Sailor, said over the weekend that he "wouldn't give in," but surprisingly, he didn't post any screenshots of his increased holdings . He didn't touch the opportunity to buy the dips at the bottom last week… This can only mean one thing: his micro-strategy is out of ammunition.
This is more accurate than any other metric.
ZEC: A familiar player, continue trading within ranges.
ZEC is up to its old tricks again. I have only one thing to say about this coin: I'm neither a die-hard bull nor a die-hard bear, I'm just a slippery operator.
The range is as follows: 450 - 700
- Long in batches around 450, with a stop loss at the pullback low.
- Short sell in short around 700, with a stop-loss order placed at the historical high.
- Keep going back and forth, don't linger.
We've repeatedly profited from short positions at 540 and 500 before, and this time it's the same strategy: if they dare to go to 700, I'll dare to short them.
Furthermore, ZEC is currently experiencing a smooth drop, topping the list of biggest losers. Don't imagine that your altcoins can escape unscathed when BTC falls—those that are due for a drop will definitely catch up.
The real losses don't come from market movements, but from the reverse trades of short at support levels and long at resistance levels . If you're technically weak, don't focus on the sentiment of bloggers; learn more about structural analysis.
BCH & WLFI: Typical bear market bubble coins
BCH: High-level resilience ≠ strong bullish coin
Despite the massive sell-off in mainstream markets, BCH is still at an all-time high. This actually gives it an excellent opportunity to "squeeze out the bubble."
620-630 is the perfect short position. Even if it doesn't fall back to 280, a normal pullback after encountering resistance should give you 20-30 points of upside potential.
What can it possibly rise in value? It has no applications, no ecosystem, yet its market capitalization is $10 billion. In a bear market, this kind of coin is most likely to plummet from its peak.
WLFI: A typical "money-making" project
With a market capitalization of 15 billion, a lack of highlights in its ecosystem, and significant pressure on project teams to unlock their assets.
I empty it mainly for two points:
- The project developers aren't here to build; they're here to withdraw funds.
- Bear markets deflate bubbles; it can't escape them.
Currently, besides shorting at the current price, I also placed orders at 0.17 and 0.18 – I'll take as many as they come in, there are too many of these coins, I can't short them all.
Counterfeit goods are experiencing a widespread sell-off: What's the strategy now?
You'll notice that coins like SUI and ENA, which have trapped a large number of retail investors, are starting to rebound. This indicates that altcoins have entered a "technical rebound after reaching their limit" phase.
There is only one core strategy for this type of market condition:
Look for stocks that have already experienced a sharp drop, not those that have already been driven up in the previous period.
The upward trends of ZEC, ICP, and STRK that have already been completed are over, and they are unlikely to rise again in the short term.
Focus on coins like FORM, PLUME, and XPL, which have been consistently falling in the past. Don't laugh at shit coin; they're worthless when they're not rebounding, but they're like ATMs when they are.
Take 20% and leave—that's the ironclad rule for oversold rebounds. The proposal to switch UNI's transaction fees has been approved. If even a leading cryptocurrency like UNI doesn't rise, then there's no point in looking at 99% of other application coins.
AAVE's rebound has been quite good; those who bought at the 150 level in our strategy have already profited. Although many people say that "counterfeit stocks have zero value," only a few can survive in the long run, and AAVE is one of them.
There are only two correct ways to create a knock-off:
- Buy when the market is falling
- Do not chase after a significant rebound.
Don't assume a bull market has arrived just because prices are rising. Chasing after the peak will only lead to losses, one after another.
The opportunity will be gone in the blink of an eye, everyone gather quickly!
Don't let hesitation delay your chance to make money, and don't get burned by worthless cryptocurrencies. Join Sister Miao and let's ride this bull market together!
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