According to a chart released today by Matrixport, Odaily Odaily reports that based on implied pricing in federal funds futures, the market expects the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut on December 10th to rise to 84%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged in January has also increased to 65%. Under this expected interest rate path, even if a rate cut occurs in December, the overall easing of monetary policy will remain limited.
Compared to Bitcoin, gold is more correlated with the US fiscal deficit and the pace of Treasury bond issuance, making it a more direct hedge against expectations of fiscal expansion and interest rate cuts. Bitcoin, on the other hand, relies more on substantial new capital inflows, and current liquidity has not yet been significantly released. Under these circumstances, the divergence between gold and Bitcoin's price movements is likely to continue in the short term.
